Prediction Markets

Fed rate cut activity in 2026, core trigger for orderly-cut-cycle scenario under fed-policy-reversal conditions.

Federal Reserve cuts at least one 25bp rate cut in 2026. Directly measures the rate-cut cycle and pauses in Fed policy action during the specified calendar year.

China commences military offensive to establish control over Taiwan by December 31, 2026. Direct resolution trigger for partial-thaw scenario involving US-China tensions and Taiwan conflict escalation.

Frontier model achieving 90% on FrontierMath directly measures state-of-the-art AI model capability advancement—core metric tracking frontier model race progression and compute allocation efficiency across leading labs.

CPI exceeding 10% in 2026 directly measures consumer price acceleration consistent with fed-policy reversal from disinflationary stance.

Federal Reserve will execute 10 cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, directly reflecting the orderly rate-cut cycle scenario triggered by fed-policy-reversal conditions.

US recession defined by two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER announcement between Q2 2025–Q4 2026 directly measures the recession trigger underlying mild-recession-recovery scenario.

US recession by end of 2026 resolves on two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER announcement, the canonical trigger for recession-driven Fed policy reversal and rate cuts.

Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 defines recession; directly maps to the deep-recession branch trigger via BEA or NBER confirmation.

AI industry downturn via three-event threshold including NVIDIA revenue decline, data center capex slowdown, and GPU price collapse—core triggers of capex-cycle overshoot and crash.

North Korea commencing military offensive against South Korea directly instantiates sustained provocation cycle escalating to kinetic conflict on the Korean Peninsula.

NATO Article 5 invocation is the explicit trigger for kinetic retaliation cycle following state-sponsored cyber attack on critical infrastructure. Market directly measures the defined escalation threshold.

Fed rate cuts of 10×25bps in 2026 directly resolve on the total number of cuts the Federal Reserve implements during the calendar year, matching the core trigger of a cut-cycle-pause scenario driven by inflation and poli

Fed rate cuts in 2026 represent the core mechanism of an orderly cut cycle; 12+ cuts would signal aggressive monetary easing aligned with policy reversal.

Nine Fed rate cuts in 2026 would signal a substantial shift toward monetary easing, consistent with a policy reversal scenario.

Federal Reserve will execute exactly 11 rate cuts of 25bp in 2026, capturing a substantial easing trajectory aligned with fed-policy-reversal toward lower rates.

Federal Reserve will execute 9 cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 under orderly cutting conditions, core measure of systematic monetary easing across the calendar year.

Measures US CPI inflation exceeding 5% in 2026. Key threshold for assessing inflation resurgence magnitude under changed Fed policy.

Nord Stream pipeline resumption directly reflects EU-Russia energy negotiations. A backroom deal enabling gas flow through pipelines would resolve this market to Yes, making it the primary market measure of the scenario'

North Korea military offensive against South Korea would constitute major escalation on peninsula, directly triggered by ICBM/ballistic missile capability demonstration in cascade scenario.

CPI exceeding 8% in 2026 captures significant inflation resurgence scenario reflecting monetary policy shift toward accommodation.

10 Fed rate cuts in 2026 reflects the magnitude of policy easing consistent with soft-landing scenarios where inflation moderates and unemployment remains stable, allowing sustained rate reductions.

US GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026 indicates sustained economic expansion consistent with a soft landing scenario where Fed policy easing supports growth without triggering recession.

China commences military offensive to establish control over Taiwan, directly triggered by Taiwan Strait tensions and PLA military exercises that collapse diplomatic talks.

Ten Fed rate cuts in 2026 represents aggressive monetary policy reversal in response to economic slowdown; core mechanism by which Fed policy accommodates recovery from mild recession.

Sahm Rule recession indicator triggers when unemployment rise signals imminent downturn; directly identifies recession onset that co-occurs with elevated inflation in fed-policy-reversal stagflation trap.

Explicitly asks whether US undergoes stagflation before 2026 midterms; combines inflation and unemployment components that define stagflation trap triggered by Fed policy reversal.

EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI lab in 2026 directly reflects the regulatory divergence scenario where European Union pursues stricter AI compliance measures than the U.S.

Brent crude above $100/barrel reflects the risk-premium embedded in oil prices due to Persian Gulf shipping disruptions and war-risk concerns.

China attack or blockade of Taiwan during 2026 directly reflects military escalation and tensions in the Taiwan Strait that would trigger talks collapse.

Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic volume on June 28, 2026 directly measures the operational status of the waterway and tanker movements through the chokepoint during potential Iran tensions.

US CPI inflation exceeding 4.0% in June 2026 directly measures consumer price acceleration that would confirm inflation resurgence and potential Fed policy reversal.

A Fed policy reversal typically occurs in response to recession signals. This market directly measures whether the US enters recession in 2026, the core trigger for policy shift.

Recession timing, core trigger for mild-recession-recovery branch. Resolution depends on recession occurrence and timing, central to fed-policy-reversal scenario.

Federal Reserve rate-cut decisions in 2026 directly reflect policy reversal from tightening to easing, core mechanism enabling soft-landing scenario.

Fed policy reversal triggers rate cuts at FOMC meetings. July 2026 rate-cut decision directly reflects whether Fed pivoted from hiking stance to accommodative stance in response to sticky inflation.

The US will experience stagflation before the end of 2026. Directly measures the stagflation scenario combining elevated inflation with economic contraction or stagnation.

When next US recession occurs is the direct trigger. Recession with rising unemployment forces Federal Reserve to cut rates in response to economic deterioration.

Fed reversal from restrictive to accommodative policy signals recession risk. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the formal recession definition and primary outcome of fed-policy-reversal trigger.

Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 directly tests whether the Fed pivots to tightening after period of cuts, core trigger for sticky-inflation-policy-reversal scenario.

Total Fed rate cuts in 2026 is the primary metric for a cutting cycle. Resolution reflects whether Fed follows through on rate reductions and how many cuts occur before any pause or reversal.

Direct match on recession trigger. Resolves on US recession occurrence in 2026, core outcome of fed-policy-reversal scenario.

China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov—directly addresses rare-earth/critical-mineral embargo scenario triggering Taiwan Strait escalation.

Frontier model competition via Epoch Capabilities Index, measuring advancement of leading AI models in the race.

Timing of AI sector correction triggered by capex cycle overshoot and subsequent crash. Core trigger for branch resolution.

Net Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly measure the outcome of the Fed's cutting cycle and any pause or reversal in monetary policy stance.

Frontier models and compute allocation post-April 2026 directly tracks the infrastructure race outcome and model deployment strategy within the frontier model race.

Iran officially announces blockade/closure of Strait of Hormuz for >48 consecutive hours by July 2026. Direct match to cascade branch trigger on Strait closure threat.

Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly measure the Fed policy reversal scenario. A soft-landing outcome typically requires measured rate cuts to support growth while controlling inflation.

10-year Treasury yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026 captures potential yield compression or flattening conditions that may accompany shifts in Federal Reserve policy stance.

AI bubble pop timing. Capex overshoot and crash cascade branches on this bubble-burst signal in AI infrastructure sector.

EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI lab directly operationalizes regulatory constraint on AI infrastructure through European Union compliance mechanisms.

US recession in 2026 captures the core recession condition. Fed rate cuts in response to recession represent the policy reversal mechanism central to the scenario.

Fed rate cuts at July 2026 FOMC meeting signal policy reversal from prior rate hikes. This outcome depends on inflation trajectory and Powell's reassessment of price pressures.

Net Fed rate cuts measure monetary policy reversal; easing supports recovery from mild recession.

Granular AI bubble timing market captures the precise moment when infrastructure capex overbuilding peaks and reverses into crash phase.

NATO Article 5 invocation before end of 2026 captures the same geopolitical escalation event that would signal kinetic retaliation following cyber attack attribution and self-defence claims.

Recession avoidance by 2029 inversely indicates if deep recession occurs in 2026-2027, prompting Fed reversal from tightening to easing stance.

Specifies year of next US recession onset, directly aligned with recession confirmation signal and Fed rate-cut response mechanism.

Two consecutive quarters of GDP decline defines recession formally. Fed policy reversal to rate cuts emerges as a response to this GDP deterioration.

Normal Strait of Hormuz traffic by July 2026 indicates de-escalation or resolution of Red Sea tensions and Iranian maritime disruption campaign.

Explicitly forecasts US recession in 2026, directly validating the deep-recession branch trigger within the timeframe.

Explicit resolution criterion for Hormuz traffic return to normal by end of July. Market outcome hinges on whether closure persists or is resolved within the timeframe.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly reflects resolution of Red Sea/Suez escalation scenario. Houthi disruptions and Iranian retaliation would suppress transit; return to normal signals de-escalation.

Asks whether US recession occurs in 2026. Resolves on the same macroeconomic contraction scenario that defines the deep-recession branch.

Iranian blockade or closure of the Strait of Hormuz for >48 hours is a direct retaliation measure that materializes the scenario's core mechanism—disruption of oil flows and regional escalation through control of critica

US recession in 2026 on Manifold mirrors the recession trigger condition underlying the fed-policy-reversal scenario and subsequent mild-recession-recovery branch.

Ransomware campaigns targeting critical infrastructure like pipelines cause widespread disruption and harm. Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack exemplifies scenario where coordinated cyber event materially impacts popula

AI bubble pop by 2028 directly reflects capex cycle crash scenario where infrastructure overinvestment unwinds and GPU demand collapses.

Net Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly measures the magnitude of rate reduction, which occurs when recession signals (unemployment, jobless claims) force the Federal Reserve to reverse its policy stance.

Timing of next US recession occurrence directly corresponds to fed-policy-reversal scenario; recession initiation date determines cascade activation.

China-domestic AI chips failing to reach 80% of H100 performance by end-2026 signals continued NVIDIA dominance in critical AI infrastructure, preventing erosion of monopoly position.

China invasion of Taiwan represents the ultimate manifestation of Taiwan Strait military tensions and failed diplomatic engagement that precedes talks collapse.

Frontier-class model training run announced with >$1B compute cost directly measures infrastructure investment and compute scaling in the frontier model development race.

Strait of Hormuz traffic recovery by August extends the measurement window for the same core trigger: tanker passage resumption following Iranian closure threat.

Federal Reserve policy reversal scenario directly hinges on whether the Fed reverses course and hikes rates in 2026, opposite the recent cutting cycle. This market measures that reversal outcome.

Nvidia's share of AI accelerator revenue in H2 2026 directly reflects deepening near-monopoly in GPU and data center AI infrastructure.

China's AI chip sector advancement directly enables domestic AI infrastructure deployment and reduces reliance on Western chips, core mechanism for filling regulatory vacuum in emerging markets.

Competition for best AI model on LMArena by June 2026 measures frontier model performance outcomes driven by underlying compute and infrastructure investments in the race.

Direct measurement of 2026 AI bubble pop, the core collapse event in capex-cycle-overshoot-crashes scenario where excessive data center buildout and GPU overproduction trigger industry contraction.