Prediction Markets

Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER recession declaration directly defines recession onset, the core trigger for fed-policy-reversal cascade into deep-recession.

Fed rate cut activity in 2026, core trigger for orderly-cut-cycle scenario under fed-policy-reversal conditions.

NVIDIA's dominance in AI chip infrastructure and data center GPUs directly determines whether it becomes or remains the world's largest company by market cap on December 31, 2026.

US GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026 directly indicates economic expansion consistent with soft-landing outcomes where growth remains positive and moderate.

Fed rate cuts in 2026 represent the core mechanism of an orderly cut cycle; 12+ cuts would signal aggressive monetary easing aligned with policy reversal.

CPI inflation exceeding 10% in 2026 directly measures the severity of inflation resurgence and would signal a major reversal from Fed disinflation efforts.

The Fed cuts rates 10 times in 2026, representing a moderate cut cycle that would reflect a policy reversal from higher rates toward accommodation.

North Korea military offensive against South Korea directly instantiates the escalation cycle scenario; invasion represents the culmination of sustained provocation.

Frontier model achieving 90% on FrontierMath benchmark by end-2026 is a direct measure of frontier AI model capability advancement within the infrastructure race timeline.

Federal Reserve will execute 9 rate cuts of 25 basis points during 2026, directly measuring the pace and magnitude of monetary policy easing central to an orderly cut cycle.

Explicitly measures AI industry downturn via three triggering events within 90 days, including NVIDIA stock decline and data center capex pullback—core manifestation of capex-cycle overshoot and crash.

US recession by end of 2026 resolves on two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth or NBER announcement, the core economic condition that triggers Fed policy reversal and recession-driven rate cuts.

China military invasion of Taiwan by end-2026 directly resolves on cross-strait tensions and potential armed conflict triggering decoupling and export controls.

US recession by end of 2026 directly measures recession onset via two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth or NBER announcement, the core trigger for Fed policy reversal and recovery scenario.

Federal Reserve cuts at least one 25bp rate cut in 2026. Directly measures the rate-cut cycle and pauses in Fed policy action during the specified calendar year.

Nine Fed rate cuts in 2026 would signal a substantial shift toward monetary easing, consistent with a policy reversal scenario.

Federal Reserve will execute exactly 11 rate cuts of 25bp in 2026, capturing a substantial easing trajectory aligned with fed-policy-reversal toward lower rates.

Nord Stream pipeline resumption directly signals resolution of Russian gas supply constraints that define the EU energy crisis. Restoration of this route would materially alter European energy security posture and natura

Container ship transits through Suez Canal directly measure Red Sea passage disruption. Houthi attacks forcing rerouting around Cape of Good Hope extend voyage distances and duration, structurally raising freight rates f

NATO Article 5 invocation is the direct diplomatic/military threshold that would follow attribution of a state-sponsored cyber act of war and kinetic retaliation, triggering collective defense obligations.

Federal Reserve will cut rates 10 times in 2026, representing a major shift in monetary stance consistent with orderly unwinding of prior tightening cycles.

Container ship transits through Suez Canal in H1 2026 directly measure the impact of Red Sea disruptions on Canal traffic and revenues. Houthi attacks and rerouting around Cape of Good Hope directly affect Egypt's transi

Military clash between PRC and Taiwan forces through 2026 captures escalation in tensions and potential conflict triggering US-China decoupling.

10 Fed rate cuts in 2026 reflects the magnitude of policy easing consistent with soft-landing scenarios where inflation moderates and unemployment remains stable, allowing sustained rate reductions.

Fed policy reversal triggering wage-price spiral would manifest as CPI exceeding 10% in 2026. Wage growth from union contracts and strikes drives consumer price inflation when monetary policy loosens.

Eight Fed rate cuts in 2026 corresponds to aggressive monetary easing typical of recession-driven policy reversal, matching the scenario's core trigger of Federal Reserve rate cuts responding to economic deterioration.

CPI inflation threshold in 2026 directly reflects sticky inflation persistence; elevated inflation would necessitate Fed policy continuation or reversal of recent rate cuts.

U.S. military invasion of Iran would represent the ultimate escalation of regional conflict originating from Red Sea tensions, directly triggering the cascade scenario through direct military intervention.

U.S. imports from China for 2026 directly measure trade volume impacts from tariff escalation. Lower import levels indicate successful tariff enforcement or retaliation-driven trade war dynamics affecting the China-prope

Explicitly asks whether US undergoes stagflation before 2026 midterms; combines inflation and unemployment components that define stagflation trap triggered by Fed policy reversal.

US CPI inflation exceeding 4.0% in June 2026 directly measures consumer price acceleration that would confirm inflation resurgence and potential Fed policy reversal.

Net Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly measures the magnitude and direction of FOMC policy moves, capturing whether the Fed pauses, resumes, or accelerates easing relative to baseline expectations.

China attack or blockade of Taiwan during 2026 directly reflects military escalation and tensions in the Taiwan Strait that would trigger talks collapse.

EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI labs directly measures regulatory implementation divergence between US and EU regulatory approaches to artificial intelligence.

Frontier models and compute allocation post-April 2026 directly tracks the infrastructure race outcome and model deployment strategy within the frontier model race.

Frontier model competition via Epoch Capabilities Index, measuring advancement of leading AI models in the race.

Total Fed rate cuts in 2026 is the primary metric for a cutting cycle. Resolution reflects whether Fed follows through on rate reductions and how many cuts occur before any pause or reversal.

EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI lab directly reflects regulatory constraint on AI infrastructure development; signals constraint implementation and compliance requirements.

10-year Treasury yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026 captures potential yield compression or flattening conditions that may accompany shifts in Federal Reserve policy stance.

When next US recession occurs is the direct trigger. Recession with rising unemployment forces Federal Reserve to cut rates in response to economic deterioration.

Recession timing, core trigger for mild-recession-recovery branch. Resolution depends on recession occurrence and timing, central to fed-policy-reversal scenario.

AI bubble pop timing. Capex overshoot and crash cascade branches on this bubble-burst signal in AI infrastructure sector.

A Fed policy reversal typically occurs in response to recession signals. This market directly measures whether the US enters recession in 2026, the core trigger for policy shift.

Iran officially announces blockade/closure of Strait of Hormuz for >48 consecutive hours by July 2026. Direct match to cascade branch trigger on Strait closure threat.

Fed reversal from restrictive to accommodative policy signals recession risk. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the formal recession definition and primary outcome of fed-policy-reversal trigger.

Timing of AI sector correction triggered by capex cycle overshoot and subsequent crash. Core trigger for branch resolution.

China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov—directly addresses rare-earth/critical-mineral embargo scenario triggering Taiwan Strait escalation.

AI bubble pop timing directly matches capex-cycle overshoot scenario. Excessive GPU/data center capex accumulation triggers demand destruction and asset correction.

Quantifies shipping volume through Strait of Hormuz on specific date, directly measuring corridor stress from tanker incident scenarios.

Direct match on recession trigger. Resolves on US recession occurrence in 2026, core outcome of fed-policy-reversal scenario.

The US will experience stagflation before the end of 2026. Directly captures the stagflation-trap scenario combining elevated inflation with economic weakness and Federal Reserve policy constraints.

Federal Reserve rate-cut decisions in 2026 directly reflect policy reversal from tightening to easing, core mechanism enabling soft-landing scenario.

Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic volume on June 28, 2026 directly measures the operational status of the waterway and tanker movements through the chokepoint during potential Iran tensions.

Destroyed tanker in the Strait of Hormuz by mid-2026 directly reflects tanker-incident escalation and physical damage to shipping infrastructure in the critical corridor.

Major internet outage from undersea cable failure directly aligns with subsea-cable-cascade scenario trigger. Market resolves on the same physical event: cable cut or damage causing widespread connectivity loss.

Recession avoidance by 2029 inversely indicates if deep recession occurs in 2026-2027, prompting Fed reversal from tightening to easing stance.

US recession in 2026 captures the core recession condition. Fed rate cuts in response to recession represent the policy reversal mechanism central to the scenario.

Net Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly capture the magnitude of monetary policy reversal, the defining characteristic of an orderly cut cycle scenario.

Granular AI bubble timing market captures the precise moment when infrastructure capex overbuilding peaks and reverses into crash phase.

Net Fed rate cuts measure monetary policy reversal; easing supports recovery from mild recession.

Two consecutive quarters of GDP decline defines recession formally. Fed policy reversal to rate cuts emerges as a response to this GDP deterioration.

Explicitly forecasts US recession in 2026, directly validating the deep-recession branch trigger within the timeframe.

Specifies year of next US recession onset, directly aligned with recession confirmation signal and Fed rate-cut response mechanism.

US recession in 2026 aligns with the fed-policy-reversal scenario, which assumes recession conditions triggering Fed pivot to easing, QE, and labor market deterioration.

Normal Strait of Hormuz traffic by July 2026 indicates de-escalation or resolution of Red Sea tensions and Iranian maritime disruption campaign.

US recession in 2026 directly measures recessionary component of stagflation scenario, indicating economic contraction that would trigger Federal Reserve policy reversal.

China's AI chip sector advancing represents the core alternative-accelerator scenario, directly competing with incumbent Nvidia/AMD dominance through indigenous chip development (Huawei Ascend, Sophon alternatives to GPU

North Korean ordnance landing on Japanese territory directly indicates ICBM or ballistic missile test cycle escalation into the Sea of Japan region, matching confirmatory signal terms.

China-domestic AI chips failing to reach 80% of H100 performance by end-2026 signals continued NVIDIA dominance in critical AI infrastructure, preventing erosion of monopoly position.

China invasion of Taiwan represents the ultimate manifestation of Taiwan Strait military tensions and failed diplomatic engagement that precedes talks collapse.

Nvidia's share of AI accelerator revenue in H2 2026 directly reflects deepening near-monopoly in GPU and data center AI infrastructure.

Competition for best AI model on LMArena by June 2026 measures frontier model performance outcomes driven by underlying compute and infrastructure investments in the race.

Federal AI safety statute or executive order in 2026 directly tests whether industry self-regulation prevails or government mandates replace voluntary standards.

AI bubble pop by 2028 directly reflects capex cycle crash scenario where infrastructure overinvestment unwinds and GPU demand collapses.

China blockade of Taiwan directly triggers partial-thaw scenario; resolves on cross-strait tensions and US-China decoupling dynamics.

Net Fed rate cuts in 2026 quantifies the magnitude of policy reversal response to recession, central to mild-recovery scenario where Fed pivots from tightening to easing.

US recession in 2026 on Manifold mirrors the recession trigger condition underlying the fed-policy-reversal scenario and subsequent mild-recession-recovery branch.

Iranian blockade or closure of the Strait of Hormuz for >48 hours is a direct retaliation measure that materializes the scenario's core mechanism—disruption of oil flows and regional escalation through control of critica

Frontier model development and training methodologies. Resolution hinges on when frontier models advance to computer-use task training, a key frontier model race indicator.

China's AI chip sector advancement directly enables domestic AI infrastructure deployment and reduces reliance on Western chips, core mechanism for filling regulatory vacuum in emerging markets.