Prediction Markets

Nvidia's dominance in GPU market and AI infrastructure directly determines whether it achieves largest global market cap by year-end 2026.

China military offensive to establish control over Taiwan by end of 2026 directly triggers partial-thaw scenario escalation from tensions to armed conflict.

Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER recession announcement directly defines the recession trigger condition for the deep-recession branch.

US recession by end of 2026 directly triggers fed-policy-reversal scenario. Recession signals labor market deterioration and unemployment rise, prompting Federal Reserve rate cuts as policy response.

Fed rate cut activity in 2026, core trigger for orderly-cut-cycle scenario under fed-policy-reversal conditions.

Federal Reserve will execute 12 or more 25bp rate cuts in 2026, directly measuring an aggressive easing cycle consistent with orderly-cut policy reversal from tightening.

US recession by end of 2026 directly captures the recessionary leg of stagflation; resolves on two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth or NBER announcement, core output metric for fed-policy-reversal scenario.

Federal Reserve will execute 9 rate cuts of 25 basis points during 2026, directly measuring the pace and magnitude of monetary policy easing central to an orderly cut cycle.

US recession by end of 2026 directly measures whether two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth occur, a core condition triggering the mild-recession-recovery scenario.

SOTA AI model achieving 90%+ on FrontierMath directly measures frontier model capability advancement and compute infrastructure sufficiency to train models of frontier-level sophistication.

Federal Reserve cuts at least one 25bp rate cut in 2026. Directly measures the rate-cut cycle and pauses in Fed policy action during the specified calendar year.

Ten 25-basis-point Fed cuts in 2026 would constitute a major policy reversal and cutting cycle. Resolution tracks cumulative FOMC decisions on federal funds rate throughout 2026.

Measures emergency Fed rate cuts through end of 2026, direct indicator of fed-policy-reversal and rate-cut confirmatory signal.

Federal Reserve will execute exactly 11 rate cuts of 25bp in 2026, capturing a substantial easing trajectory aligned with fed-policy-reversal toward lower rates.

Federal Reserve will execute exactly 4 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, measuring a moderate pace consistent with gradual policy normalization.

Federal Reserve makes zero rate cuts in 2026. Represents the extreme pause scenario where the Fed halts cuts entirely despite prior easing cycle signals.

Fed policy reversal toward accommodation triggers rate cuts; 5 cuts in 2026 represents moderate easing consistent with soft-landing scenario where inflation moderates and growth remains stable.

Resolves on emergency Fed rate cut before 2027, capturing the policy-reversal scenario where Federal Reserve implements rate cuts in response to economic stress.

U.S. military offensive against Iran would likely trigger sustained Strait of Hormuz closure as Iran responds to invasion; directly connected to branch's core geopolitical catalyst.

US GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026 is consistent with soft-landing trajectory: expansion sufficient to maintain employment gains without overheating.

U.S. federal AI safety bill with specific provisions on model creation, training restrictions, and safety standards directly addresses regulatory formalization of voluntary AI safety practices into binding law.

North Korea commencing military offensive against South Korea directly represents escalation cycle on the Korean Peninsula, triggering sustained provocation through armed conflict.

China military offensive against Taiwan directly resolves on PLA aggression in the Taiwan Strait, the core geopolitical trigger for talks collapse and escalated tensions outlined in the scenario.

North Korean military offensive against South Korea would represent direct escalation on the peninsula, potentially triggered by or coinciding with ICBM test cycles that demonstrate capability advancement.

NATO Article 5 invocation is the direct diplomatic/military threshold that would follow attribution of a state-sponsored cyber act of war and kinetic retaliation, triggering collective defense obligations.

Federal Reserve will cut rates 10 times in 2026, representing a major shift in monetary stance consistent with orderly unwinding of prior tightening cycles.

North Korea military offensive against South Korea would represent severe escalation on the peninsula, directly triggering UN Security Council involvement and potential sanctions expansion, core outcomes of seventh-nucle

Nord Stream pipeline resumption directly triggers energy supply normalization between Russia and EU, core mechanism through which backroom deal would resolve energy crisis via restored natural gas flows to member states.

Nord Stream pipeline resumption directly resolves Russian gas supply to EU, core trigger for energy security and independence from crisis dependency.

Military encounter between China and Taiwan forces involving use of force would confirm strait tensions escalating beyond rhetoric into kinetic conflict.

Fed policy reversal typically involves lower rate paths, which pushes 10-year Treasury yields down. This market directly measures whether 10Y yields fall below 3.9%, a key outcome of aggressive policy easing.

10 Fed rate cuts in 2026 reflects the magnitude of policy easing consistent with soft-landing scenarios where inflation moderates and unemployment remains stable, allowing sustained rate reductions.

U.S. military invasion of Iran would represent the ultimate escalation of regional conflict originating from Red Sea tensions, directly triggering the cascade scenario through direct military intervention.

Eight Fed rate cuts in 2026 corresponds to aggressive monetary easing typical of recession-driven policy reversal, matching the scenario's core trigger of Federal Reserve rate cuts responding to economic deterioration.

Eight Fed rate cuts in 2026 represents a moderate easing scenario; resolves on the total count of 25bp cuts enacted by the FOMC across all 2026 meetings.

10 Fed rate cuts in 2026 represents aggressive monetary easing consistent with recession response. This threshold captures substantial policy reversal from tighter 2025 stance.

ByteDance capturing the best AI model position indicates Chinese companies filling gaps in frontier AI development where regulatory divergence enables rapid deployment and iteration.

A fed-policy reversal scenario would compress 10-year yields downward as markets anticipate extended low-rate environment. Yield below 3.8% signals shifted Fed forward guidance and expectations of prolonged accommodation

Iranian regime collapse could precipitate Hormuz closure through state collapse, proxy escalation, or power vacuum conflict; major geopolitical shock affecting oil corridors.

Specific threshold of 6 Fed rate cuts in 2026 captures aggressive monetary easing consistent with a policy reversal triggered by recession or economic weakness.

US invasion of Iran would be a potential endgame of Red Sea escalation. Regional conflict centered on Persian Gulf chokepoints and Iranian retaliation could escalate to full military offensive.

10-year Treasury yield below 3.7% consistent with aggressive Fed rate cuts and flight-to-safety demand; steepens curve by widening the 10-2 spread.

Five Fed rate cuts in 2026 represents a specific threshold of monetary policy reversal consistent with recession-recovery dynamics and moderate stimulus response.

Quantifies shipping volume through Strait of Hormuz on specific date, directly measuring corridor stress from tanker incident scenarios.

US CPI inflation exceeding 4.0% in June 2026 directly measures consumer price acceleration that would confirm inflation resurgence and potential Fed policy reversal.

EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI lab directly tests whether the Act's compliance framework generates regulatory divergence between US and EU AI infrastructure development.

Fed reversal from restrictive to accommodative policy signals recession risk. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the formal recession definition and primary outcome of fed-policy-reversal trigger.

Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic volume on June 28, 2026 directly measures the operational status of the waterway and tanker movements through the chokepoint during potential Iran tensions.

EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI labs directly instantiates regulatory constraint on AI infrastructure development and deployment in 2026.

Destroyed tanker in the Strait of Hormuz by mid-2026 directly reflects tanker-incident escalation and physical damage to shipping infrastructure in the critical corridor.

Normal Strait of Hormuz traffic by July 2026 indicates de-escalation or resolution of Red Sea tensions and Iranian maritime disruption campaign.

Two consecutive quarters of GDP decline defines recession formally. Fed policy reversal to rate cuts emerges as a response to this GDP deterioration.

Federal Reserve policy reversal scenario directly hinges on whether the Fed reverses course and hikes rates in 2026, opposite the recent cutting cycle. This market measures that reversal outcome.

Bitcoin price contingent on Strait of Hormuz closure duration; reflects market sensitivity to oil-corridor disruption and risk-premium dynamics.

Frontier-class model training run announced with >$1B compute cost directly measures infrastructure investment and compute scaling in the frontier model development race.

China-domestic AI chips failing to reach 80% of H100 performance by end-2026 signals continued NVIDIA dominance in critical AI infrastructure, preventing erosion of monopoly position.

OECD natural gas electricity production falling below 200TWh signals energy scarcity that would trigger winter demand rationing across EU member states including Germany during supply-constrained periods.

China's export controls on silicon metal directly reflect supply-chain decoupling dynamics triggered by Taiwan Strait tensions and US-China semiconductor competition.

Nvidia's share of AI accelerator revenue in H2 2026 directly reflects deepening near-monopoly in GPU and data center AI infrastructure.

Brent crude closing above $100/barrel reflects the oil-price component of elevated risk premium when Middle East corridor disruption constrains supply.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end of July 2026 reflects resolution of any Iranian blockade or regional maritime disruption affecting tanker passage.

US unemployment exceeding 5% in 2026 signals labor-market deterioration consistent with stagflation scenario; unemployment spike is key stagflation indicator alongside persistent inflation.

Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026 represent a direct reversal of the prior cutting cycle, indicating inflation pressures have forced policy recalibration away from accommodation.

Frontier model supporting 10M+ token context window requires substantial GPU compute and advanced data center infrastructure to process and serve such extended sequences.

US unemployment exceeding 5% in 2026 indicates labor market weakness characteristic of recession, a primary confirmatory signal that would drive Federal Reserve to cut rates as stabilization measure.

US unemployment exceeding 5% in 2026 is a core labor-market signal of economic contraction accompanying recession and fed-policy reversal.

Extended forecast of China's silicon metal export controls through 2027 captures escalation trajectory in rare-earth and critical-mineral decoupling amid Taiwan Strait instability.

Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic volumes on June 28 measure corridor operational capacity and risk-premium persistence from shipping disruption.

Major military provocation by North Korea is the core manifestation of sustained provocation dynamics, including ballistic missile tests and nuclear demonstrations.

US CPI inflation exceeding 4.0% in June 2026 measures the inflation component of stagflation; elevated prices persist despite Fed reversal attempting to combat recession.

Brent crude spot price trajectory directly sensitive to Gulf energy infrastructure disruption. Missile strikes on Saudi/UAE production or export capacity trigger upward price pressure as market reprices supply shock.

Mexico fiscal stress could accelerate targeted tariff implementation on autos, steel, and aluminium under Section 232, driving up US effective tariff rates by October 2026.

At least 3 Fed rate cuts by end-2026 indicates aggressive monetary policy reversal supporting recovery from recession; aligns with fed-policy-reversal confirmatory signal.

TSMC CoWoS capacity constraints removal signals expanded Nvidia GPU production capacity, enabling further market consolidation in AI chips.

Publication of Article 73 incident guidance specifies EU's AI regulation implementation details, shaping how European AI infrastructure operators must comply versus US counterparts.

BIS export control updates on AI accelerators represent semiconductor and chip export restrictions central to US-China decoupling, with Taiwan-strait escalation as a key trigger mechanism.

Fed policy reversal scenario resolves partly on the final federal funds rate target range after the final 2026 FOMC meeting. Sticky inflation requiring policy pivot directly affects end-of-year rate positioning.

CPI-U showing higher inflation in 2026 than 2025 year-over-year measures inflation acceleration, the core mechanism triggering Fed policy reversal.

US CPI inflation response to commodity and food price shocks. Supply shock transmission to headline inflation measurable by June 2026 following policy reversal.

Control of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date determines shipping corridor access and directly influences war-risk premiums and oil tanker insurance costs.