Prediction Markets

US recession defined by two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER declaration directly captures the recession component of stagflation, a core trigger for fed-policy-reversal.

Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth (recession criterion) directly triggers the deep-recession cascade and activates fed-policy-reversal scenario with quantitative easing and unemployment effects.

AI industry downturn triggered by capex overbuild and bubble dynamics. Market explicitly tracks multiple failure signals including NVIDIA stock impact, data center demand collapse, and major AI company distress within 90

US recession by end of 2026 directly measures whether two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth occur, a core condition triggering the mild-recession-recovery scenario.

US recession by end of 2026 directly triggers fed-policy-reversal scenario. Recession indicators (negative GDP growth, rising unemployment) prompt Federal Reserve rate cuts as core policy response.

Federal Reserve cuts at least one 25bp rate cut in 2026. Directly measures the rate-cut cycle and pauses in Fed policy action during the specified calendar year.

China commences military offensive against Taiwan. Directly triggered by Taiwan Strait tensions, PLA military exercises, and collapse of diplomatic talks that prevent armed conflict.

Fed rate cut activity in 2026, core trigger for orderly-cut-cycle scenario under fed-policy-reversal conditions.

Federal Reserve will execute 9 rate cuts of 25 basis points during 2026, directly measuring the pace and magnitude of monetary policy easing central to an orderly cut cycle.

Frontier model capability milestone directly measures AI model performance advancement on standardized benchmark, core indicator of frontier model race progress.

Military encounter between China and Taiwan forces directly signals escalation within the partial-thaw scenario; covers missile strikes, artillery, or armed clashes that would confirm tension threshold breach.

SOTA AI model achieving 90%+ on FrontierMath Benchmark directly measures frontier model capability advancement through compute-intensive training, core indicator of frontier model race progress.

Container ship transits through Suez Canal directly measure the degree of rerouting around Cape of Good Hope. H1 2026 threshold of 2k+ transits indicates whether shipping has normalized or remains disrupted by Red Sea se

Nord Stream pipeline resumption directly reflects gas-cutoff dynamics and Russian energy leverage over EU. Market resolves on commercial gas deliveries to Germany/EU members, core trigger for energy-crisis political frac

US CPI inflation reaching 4%+ in 2026. Core indicator of inflation resurgence scenario triggered by Fed policy reversal.

Federal Reserve executes 12 or more rate cuts in 2026, directly measuring the orderly cut cycle scenario triggered by fed-policy-reversal conditions.

Ten 25-basis-point Fed cuts in 2026 would constitute a major policy reversal and cutting cycle. Resolution tracks cumulative FOMC decisions on federal funds rate throughout 2026.

AI model performance threshold on Chatbot Arena tracks frontier model competition, measures capability progression central to infrastructure-driven race.

Federal funds rate target of 2.0% at end of 2026 represents a potential endpoint for an orderly rate-cut sequence. The specific level indicates the degree of monetary policy accommodation achieved over the cycle.

Measures emergency Fed rate cuts through end of 2026, direct indicator of fed-policy-reversal and rate-cut confirmatory signal.

US GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026 is consistent with soft-landing trajectory: expansion sufficient to maintain employment gains without overheating.

Nvidia's dominance in AI infrastructure and GPU supply chain directly determines whether it achieves largest-company-by-market-cap status. Monopoly deepening in CUDA/data-center chips underpins valuation.

Chinese AI model achieving top leaderboard ranking directly demonstrates China's capacity to develop competitive AI infrastructure without reliance on Western platforms or regulatory frameworks.

Data center infrastructure regulation directly constrains compute capacity available for frontier model training and deployment.

U.S. federal AI safety bill with specific provisions on model creation, training restrictions, and safety standards directly addresses regulatory formalization of voluntary AI safety practices into binding law.

North Korea commencing military offensive against South Korea directly instantiates the escalation cycle on the Korean Peninsula, with invasion as the culminating provocation event.

U.S. imports from China for 2026 directly measure trade volume impacts from tariff escalation. Lower import levels indicate successful tariff enforcement or retaliation-driven trade war dynamics affecting the China-prope

Explicitly addresses stagflation before end of 2026, matching the exact scenario name and all confirmatory signal terms: stagflation, inflation, recession, and unemployment dynamics.

Brent crude pricing above $120 threshold directly measures elevated oil costs from Middle East corridor risk premium and Persian Gulf tensions.

Net Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly measures the magnitude and direction of FOMC policy moves, capturing whether the Fed pauses, resumes, or accelerates easing relative to baseline expectations.

A Fed policy reversal typically occurs in response to recession signals. This market directly measures whether the US enters recession in 2026, the core trigger for policy shift.

Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic volume on June 28, 2026 directly measures the operational status of the waterway and tanker movements through the chokepoint during potential Iran tensions.

Quantifies shipping volume through Strait of Hormuz on specific date, directly measuring corridor stress from tanker incident scenarios.

China attack or blockade of Taiwan during 2026 directly reflects military escalation and tensions in the Taiwan Strait that would trigger talks collapse.

EU AI Act Article 73 incident guidance directly implements the regulatory framework governing AI infrastructure compliance in Europe, a core pillar of EU-US regulatory divergence.

AI bubble pop timing. Capex overshoot and crash cascade branches on this bubble-burst signal in AI infrastructure sector.

Major internet outage from undersea cable failure directly aligns with subsea-cable-cascade scenario trigger. Market resolves on the same physical event: cable cut or damage causing widespread connectivity loss.

Frontier models and compute allocation post-April 2026 directly tracks the infrastructure race outcome and model deployment strategy within the frontier model race.

Total Fed rate cuts in 2026 is the primary metric for a cutting cycle. Resolution reflects whether Fed follows through on rate reductions and how many cuts occur before any pause or reversal.

Timing of AI sector correction triggered by capex cycle overshoot and subsequent crash. Core trigger for branch resolution.

Iran officially announces blockade/closure of Strait of Hormuz for >48 consecutive hours by July 2026. Direct match to cascade branch trigger on Strait closure threat.

NVIDIA's share of AI accelerator revenue exceeding 80% in H2 2026 directly reflects deepening monopoly control over GPU infrastructure market, the core dynamic of the cascade.

Strait of Hormuz reopening directly measures recovery from Red Sea/regional escalation disruption. Confirms or refutes extent of Strait blockade tied to Iran actions.

Frontier model competition via Epoch Capabilities Index, measuring advancement of leading AI models in the race.

Fed reversal from restrictive to accommodative policy signals recession risk. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the formal recession definition and primary outcome of fed-policy-reversal trigger.

China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov—directly addresses rare-earth/critical-mineral embargo scenario triggering Taiwan Strait escalation.

China military invasion of Taiwan by end of 2030 directly triggers partial-thaw scenario through geopolitical escalation, US-China tensions, and potential decoupling of semiconductor supply chains.

AI bubble pop timing directly matches capex-cycle overshoot scenario. Excessive GPU/data center capex accumulation triggers demand destruction and asset correction.

Net Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly measure central bank policy adjustment tied to soft-landing conditions; soft landing typically requires moderate rate reductions to support growth while maintaining labor-market stabili

Direct match on recession trigger. Resolves on US recession occurrence in 2026, core outcome of fed-policy-reversal scenario.

Federal Reserve rate-cut decisions in 2026 directly reflect policy reversal from tightening to easing, core mechanism enabling soft-landing scenario.

When next US recession occurs is the direct trigger. Recession with rising unemployment forces Federal Reserve to cut rates in response to economic deterioration.

10-year Treasury yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026 captures potential yield compression or flattening conditions that may accompany shifts in Federal Reserve policy stance.

EU AI Act Article 73 incident guidance directly implements the AI Act's regulatory framework, a core mechanism for enforcing compliance obligations on AI infrastructure operators in Europe.

Recession timing, core trigger for mild-recession-recovery branch. Resolution depends on recession occurrence and timing, central to fed-policy-reversal scenario.

US stagflation before 2026 midterms captures the same economic condition (inflation + weak employment) that forces Federal Reserve policy reversal.

Destroyed tanker in the Strait of Hormuz by mid-2026 directly reflects tanker-incident escalation and physical damage to shipping infrastructure in the critical corridor.

Net Fed rate cuts measure monetary policy reversal; easing supports recovery from mild recession.

Granular AI bubble timing market captures the precise moment when infrastructure capex overbuilding peaks and reverses into crash phase.

Recession avoidance by 2029 inversely indicates if deep recession occurs in 2026-2027, prompting Fed reversal from tightening to easing stance.

Net number of Fed rate cuts in 2026 quantifies the breadth of an orderly easing cycle triggered by shifting inflation and monetary policy priorities.

US recession in 2026 aligns with the fed-policy-reversal scenario, which assumes recession conditions triggering Fed pivot to easing, QE, and labor market deterioration.

US recession in 2026 is the primary macro condition underlying the fed-policy-reversal scenario. Manifold recession question captures the same economic downturn trigger as the cascade branch.

Resolves on commercial traffic reopening at Strait of Hormuz, core outcome of tanker-incident corridor stress mitigation.

Normal Strait of Hormuz traffic by July 2026 indicates de-escalation or resolution of Red Sea tensions and Iranian maritime disruption campaign.

Specifies year of next US recession onset, directly aligned with recession confirmation signal and Fed rate-cut response mechanism.

Commercial traffic reopening in the Strait of Hormuz before June 10, 2026 indicates whether Iranian closure threats materialize and maritime transit normalizes.

Measures whether Fed cuts rates at least 3 times before end-2026, directly aligned with rate-cut cycle expectations in policy-reversal scenario.

Explicitly forecasts US recession in 2026, directly validating the deep-recession branch trigger within the timeframe.

Full-year 2026 US CPI inflation directly measures whether price pressures reignite, prompting potential Fed pivot from easing cycle.

USMCA renegotiation or bilateral replacement directly signals US-Mexico trade friction. Sheinbaum's fiscal stress scenario would intensify bilateral pressure on trade architecture and USMCA terms.

EU AI Act enforcement actions against frontier AI labs demonstrate the substantive divergence between European regulatory approach and US posture on AI infrastructure deployment and compliance.

Sabotage-induced power outage in a U.S. megacity directly matches the critical infrastructure cyber attack scenario, with multi-week recovery implications and potential CISA/NERC involvement.

Bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in Russo-Ukraine conflict directly matches de-escalation and diplomacy signals on a major geopolitical flashpoint analogous to Korean Peninsula tensions.

Shipping interruptions in Bab-el-Mandeb Strait are the economic consequence of prolonged Red Sea attrition conflict driven by Houthi drone and missile attacks.

Federal AI safety statute or executive order in 2026 directly tests whether industry self-regulation prevails or government mandates replace voluntary standards.

EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI labs tests whether regulatory constraints on AI infrastructure are operationally implemented through compliance mechanisms.

US inflation at 3% or above in 2026 directly reflects persistence of price pressures that would trigger Fed policy reversal away from rate cuts toward maintenance or hikes.

China-domestic AI chips failing to reach 80% of H100 performance by end-2026 signals continued NVIDIA dominance in critical AI infrastructure, preventing erosion of monopoly position.

House vote to restrict force-on-Iran authority by June 30 reflects congressional response to Hormuz closure tensions. Legislative action often accompanies or follows military escalation signals in the Middle East.