Prediction Markets

US recession by end of 2026 resolves on two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth or NBER announcement, the primary macroeconomic trigger for Fed policy reversal and rate cuts.

FrontierMath benchmark performance is a direct measure of frontier AI model capability advancement, a core signal of infrastructure-driven model race progress through 2026.

US recession by end of 2026 directly measures the recession trigger condition. A fed-policy reversal (rate cuts) typically follows or accompanies recession onset, making this market's resolution state central to the scen

Federal Reserve cuts at least one 25bp rate cut in 2026. Directly measures the rate-cut cycle and pauses in Fed policy action during the specified calendar year.

CPI exceeding 10% in 2026 represents severe inflation resurgence that would necessitate Federal Reserve policy reversal from recent easing cycles.

AI industry downturn triggered by three threshold events within 90 days, including NVIDIA stock decline and data center capex pullback—directly measures the capex-cycle crash outcome.

Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER recession declaration directly operationalizes the recession trigger for the fed-policy-reversal scenario.

Fed rate cuts of 10×25bps in 2026 directly resolve on the total number of cuts the Federal Reserve implements during the calendar year, matching the core trigger of a cut-cycle-pause scenario driven by inflation and poli

China commences military offensive to control Taiwan by December 31, 2026. Directly triggered by escalation in US-China tensions, export controls, and Taiwan strait military posturing under partial-thaw scenario conditio

North Korea commencing military offensive against South Korea directly instantiates the sustained-provocation-cycle escalating to kinetic conflict on the Korean Peninsula.

Fed rate cuts in 2026 represent the core mechanism of an orderly cut cycle; 12+ cuts would signal aggressive monetary easing aligned with policy reversal.

Federal Reserve will execute 10 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, representing a standard orderly cutting cycle aligned with the scenario trigger.

Fed rate cut activity in 2026, core trigger for orderly-cut-cycle scenario under fed-policy-reversal conditions.

Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 directly signals policy reversal from current monetary stance; core trigger for sticky-inflation-policy-pivot scenario.

Federal Reserve will execute 9 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, within the range of an orderly monetary policy easing cycle.

Nine Fed rate cuts in 2026 would signal a substantial shift toward monetary easing, consistent with a policy reversal scenario.

CPI inflation exceeding 10% in 2026 would signal demand-side pressures or supply shocks (oil, commodities, food) persisting despite Fed policy, indicating a policy reversal scenario where tightening failed to contain inf

Container ship transits through Suez Canal in H1 2026 directly measure the impact of Red Sea disruptions on Canal traffic and revenues. Houthi attacks and rerouting around Cape of Good Hope directly affect Egypt's transi

Container ship transits through Suez Canal directly measure Red Sea passage disruption. Houthi attacks forcing rerouting around Cape of Good Hope extend voyage distances and duration, structurally raising freight rates f

NVIDIA's dominance in AI infrastructure directly determines whether it achieves largest-company status by end-2026. Market cap leadership reflects deepening monopoly position in GPU/CUDA ecosystem.

CPI exceeding 8% in 2026 signals significant inflation resurgence triggering potential Fed policy reversal and rate hikes.

Nord Stream pipeline resumption directly resolves on Russian gas flows to EU. A full-cutoff political fracture scenario involving gas cutoffs and Hungary would necessarily entail whether pipelines reopen as a key fractur

Nord Stream pipeline resumption directly triggers EU-Russia energy rapprochement. Commercial gas flows to EU members would signal normalized energy relations and backroom deal execution between Russia and European partne

Federal Reserve will execute 11 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, representing an aggressive orderly cutting cycle in response to inflation moderation.

10-year Treasury yield movements directly reflect Fed policy reversals and yield-curve dynamics. A dip below 3.9% signals expectations of Fed easing or economic softening that steepens the curve.

Nord Stream pipeline reactivation directly resolves whether Russian gas flows to EU members, the core trigger for energy independence from Russian supply constraints.

Explicitly asks whether US undergoes stagflation before 2026 midterms; combines inflation and unemployment components that define stagflation trap triggered by Fed policy reversal.

Free flow through Strait of Hormuz is the core trigger for elevated-risk-premium resolution. Normalization signals de-escalation; persistent closure or reduced traffic indicates sustained war risk and insurance cost elev

Stagflation before end of 2026 directly captures the core scenario: simultaneous elevated inflation and economic contraction reflecting Fed policy reversal consequences.

Brent crude price is a direct barometer of Middle East oil-corridor risk. Sustained closure or disruption of Persian Gulf shipping raises crude costs via supply constraints and war risk premiums on tanker insurance.

EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI lab directly demonstrates regulatory constraints on AI infrastructure deployment and compliance mechanisms under European regulation.

Control of the Strait of Hormuz determines corridor access and directly triggers tanker incident risk assessments, war risk insurance pricing, and naval activity levels.

Frontier model competition via Epoch Capabilities Index, measuring advancement of leading AI models in the race.

Direct match on recession trigger. Resolves on US recession occurrence in 2026, core outcome of fed-policy-reversal scenario.

Fed policy reversal triggers rate cuts at FOMC meetings. July 2026 rate-cut decision directly reflects whether Fed pivoted from hiking stance to accommodative stance in response to sticky inflation.

A Fed policy reversal typically occurs in response to recession signals. This market directly measures whether the US enters recession in 2026, the core trigger for policy shift.

US CPI inflation exceeding 4.0% in June 2026 directly measures consumer price acceleration that would confirm inflation resurgence and potential Fed policy reversal.

China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov—directly addresses rare-earth/critical-mineral embargo scenario triggering Taiwan Strait escalation.

China attack or blockade of Taiwan during 2026 directly reflects military escalation and tensions in the Taiwan Strait that would trigger talks collapse.

Atlantic hurricane season activity directly determines Gulf of Mexico storm intensity and frequency, primary trigger for refinery disruptions and supply shocks.

Fed reversal from restrictive to accommodative policy signals recession risk. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the formal recession definition and primary outcome of fed-policy-reversal trigger.

Net Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly measure monetary policy response to labor market and growth conditions that define a soft landing scenario under fed-policy-reversal.

Directly quantifies net Fed rate cuts in 2026, the core metric of a cut-cycle-pause scenario where the Fed pauses or reverses hiking to implement cuts.

Frontier models and compute allocation post-April 2026 directly tracks the infrastructure race outcome and model deployment strategy within the frontier model race.

Federal Reserve rate-cut decisions in 2026 directly reflect policy reversal from tightening to easing, core mechanism enabling soft-landing scenario.

Total Fed rate cuts in 2026 is the primary metric for a cutting cycle. Resolution reflects whether Fed follows through on rate reductions and how many cuts occur before any pause or reversal.

EU AI Act enforcement action against frontier AI lab directly triggers divergence in regulatory approach between U.S. (lighter touch) and European Union (stricter compliance regime).

Strait of Hormuz traffic disruption is a direct physical manifestation of Red Sea escalation and Iranian regional tension. Market tracks return to normal operations, a key resolution indicator for regional conflict de-es

Timing of AI sector correction triggered by capex cycle overshoot and subsequent crash. Core trigger for branch resolution.

Fed rate cuts at July 2026 FOMC meeting signal policy reversal from prior rate hikes. This outcome depends on inflation trajectory and Powell's reassessment of price pressures.

US recession in 2026 captures the core recession condition. Fed rate cuts in response to recession represent the policy reversal mechanism central to the scenario.

Granular AI bubble timing market captures the precise moment when infrastructure capex overbuilding peaks and reverses into crash phase.

Recession avoidance by 2029 inversely indicates if deep recession occurs in 2026-2027, prompting Fed reversal from tightening to easing stance.

Net Fed rate cuts measure monetary policy reversal; easing supports recovery from mild recession.

Two consecutive quarters of GDP decline defines recession formally. Fed policy reversal to rate cuts emerges as a response to this GDP deterioration.

Hormuz traffic return by August threshold confirms sustained closure has ended and corridor functionality restored.

Specifies year of next US recession onset, directly aligned with recession confirmation signal and Fed rate-cut response mechanism.

Normal Strait of Hormuz traffic by July 2026 indicates de-escalation or resolution of Red Sea tensions and Iranian maritime disruption campaign.

Measures Strait of Hormuz shipping recovery during Trump presidency, directly tied to Iranian actions and regional escalation dynamics that affect chokepoint traffic flows.

Explicit AI bubble pop in 2026 resolution captures infrastructure capex overshoots and subsequent correction cycle timing.

ASML Cymer export controls directly trigger allied semiconductor equipment restrictions. Taiwan Strait tensions drive US policy tightening on advanced chip manufacturing tools supplied by Netherlands-based ASML.

Frontier-class model training run announced with >$1B compute cost directly measures infrastructure investment and compute scaling in the frontier model development race.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly depends on resolution of Iran-related maritime tensions affecting tanker transit through the Persian Gulf chokepoint.

Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization directly signals resolution of Red Sea–Suez disruption and regional de-escalation. Ceasefire or diplomatic settlement would enable maritime passage recovery.

Full-year 2026 US CPI inflation directly measures whether price pressures reignite, prompting potential Fed pivot from easing cycle.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end of July 2026 reflects resolution of any Iranian blockade or regional maritime disruption affecting tanker passage.

Net Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly measures the policy response to recession conditions; more cuts occur when unemployment rises and growth stalls.

Net Fed rate cuts in 2026 quantify the policy-reversal magnitude. A mild-recession-recovery scenario involves aggressive Fed easing; this market captures the intensity of rate-cut response.

USMCA renegotiation or bilateral replacement directly reflects sustained friction in US-Mexico trade relations and is a core mechanism through which tariff disputes and commercial tensions materialize under Sheinbaum's a

Bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in Russo-Ukraine conflict directly maps to Korean Peninsula de-escalation scenario, both measuring diplomatic resolution of major regional military standoffs.

China's AI chip sector advancing represents the core alternative-accelerator scenario, directly competing with incumbent Nvidia/AMD dominance through indigenous chip development (Huawei Ascend, Sophon alternatives to GPU

Net count of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 directly measures orderly cut cycle scenario where multiple 25 basis point reductions occur through scheduled and emergency FOMC actions.

China-domestic AI chips failing to reach 80% of H100 performance by end-2026 signals continued NVIDIA dominance in critical AI infrastructure, preventing erosion of monopoly position.

Chinese export restrictions on rare-earth magnets (neodymium, dysprosium, samarium) trigger 20% price surge by September 2026. Directly measures rare-earth embargo impact via confirmatory signal term.

US recession in 2026 resolves on the core economic condition signaling fed-policy reversal and quantitative easing deployment.

China blockade of Taiwan directly triggers partial-thaw scenario; resolves on cross-strait tensions and US-China decoupling dynamics.

Strait of Hormuz traffic recovery by August extends the measurement window for the same core trigger: tanker passage resumption following Iranian closure threat.

US recession in 2026 directly matches the recession signal term and macroeconomic trigger for policy reversal.

US recession in 2026 on Manifold mirrors the recession trigger condition underlying the fed-policy-reversal scenario and subsequent mild-recession-recovery branch.

Korea-China rare earth trade halt directly signals export control escalation in response to Taiwan Strait tensions, matching confirmatory signal terms.