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CALMBaseline conditions — use this window to review structureLIVE · 3m agoRead full brief →
Where signals agreeSee all →
Congo - Kinshasa
79thin · 2 src
country2 sources agree
Congo - Brazzaville
78thin · 2 src
country2 sources agree
Palestinian Territories
78thin · 2 src
country2 sources agree
European Union
78thin · 2 src
country2 sources agree
Top ThemesAll themes →
🧠 AI Chip Bottleneck
OPP16 signals
🇺🇸 🇹🇼 🇰🇷
🛡 US Defense Surge
OPP15 signals
🇺🇸 🇬🇧 🇵🇱
🏗 India Infrastructure Supercycle
OPP11 signals
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Prediction Markets →
⚡ Market GapsAll gaps →
92pp gappredictit vs polymarket97% / 5%

Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Rhode Island?

34pp gappolymarket vs predictit3% / 37%

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

thinThe US will experience stagflation before the end of 2026.
manifoldplay
7%Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
polymarket
thinWill a major internet outage caused by undersea cable failure occur before July 1, 2026?
manifoldplay
thin[ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?
manifoldplay
thinWill the US enter a recession in 2026?
manifoldplay
80%Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
polymarket
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Active Scenarios →Signal edge vs market
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AI-generated hypothesis. Not investment advice. Always verify independently with a qualified financial advisor.

Market-Moving Events →
7/10disaster🇨🇳23h ago

Orange earthquake (Magnitude 6.3M, Depth:10km) in China 16/06/2026 09:06 UTC, 9 thousand (in MMI>=VII).. On 6/16/2026 9:06:55 AM…

6/10economic🇦🇫 🇨🇳21h ago

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb on Tuesday termed the launch of the Tax Asaan Scheme for traders a “paradigm shift”, adding …

6/10military🇺🇸 🇮🇷21h ago

WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump on Tuesday signalled his willingness to submit the recently negotiated Iran agreement to C…

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v·b4d5641