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North Korea commencing military offensive against South Korea directly instantiates sustained provocation cycle escalating to kinetic conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
NATO Article 5 invocation is the explicit trigger for kinetic retaliation cycle following state-sponsored cyber attack on critical infrastructure. Market directly measures the defined escalation threshold.
Brent crude above $100/barrel reflects the risk-premium embedded in oil prices due to Persian Gulf shipping disruptions and war-risk concerns.
China attack or blockade of Taiwan during 2026 directly reflects military escalation and tensions in the Taiwan Strait that would trigger talks collapse.
China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov—directly addresses rare-earth/critical-mineral embargo scenario triggering Taiwan Strait escalation.
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NATO Article 5 consultation signals from Baltic states and continued Taiwan procurement signals are driving defense spending acceleration. Markets have partially priced this but procurement backlogs and multi-year contract signals suggest sustained demand not yet in consensus estimates.