Trajectories›Global mean surface temperature pathway through 2050
Global mean surface temperature pathway through 2050
Grey rhino2026–2050IPCC AR6 WG1 + WG3
The 12-month-average breach of 1.5°C above pre-industrial is institutionally framed as essentially decided. Across all five core SSP scenarios, IPCC AR6 WG1 projects a likely multi-year crossing of the 1.5°C anomaly between roughly 2030 and 2035 — the bands narrow tightly through that window before diverging sharply afterwards.
The interesting question isn't whether 1.5°C breaches; it's by how much and for how long. SSP1-1.9 traces a brief overshoot and return below 1.5°C by 2100. SSP2-4.5 — the AR6 mid-range — runs through ~2.0°C by 2050. SSP5-8.5 reaches ~2.4°C by 2050 and keeps climbing, though the variant itself is contested in the peer literature as implausible under realistic coal trajectories (Hausfather & Peters, Nature 2020).
These are institutional pathways from IPCC AR6, not OpenWatch forecasts. We visualise the published SSP variants and connect them to the live signal stream.
Line style encodes source authority. Color matches line color in the chart.
Most likely outcome
SSP2-4.5 · middle of the road
IPCC AR6 mid-range pathway. 1.5°C breached on a multi-year average around 2032; warming through ~2.0°C by 2050. Physical-risk pricing re-rates incrementally; adaptation spend dominates over mitigation.
Most impactful if it happens
SSP5-8.5 · fossil-fuelled development
High-emissions stress pathway. Crosses 2°C in the mid-2040s; tail-risk for compound climate-finance shocks, sovereign downgrades in exposed jurisdictions, and disorderly transition repricing.
Insufficient signal — fewer than 3 distinct sources in the 7-day window. Weighted lean suppressed.
Macro stress signals
0 signals · 0.0 w
Reform / policy signals
0 signals · 0.0 w
Tail-risk signals
0 signals · 0.0 w
SSP2-4.5 · middle of the road
1.5°C breached early-2030s on multi-year average; warming continues to ~2.0°C by 2050. Adaptation outspends mitigation; transition is gradual not orderly.
Trade lens — Physical-risk premia widen incrementally; insurance reprices coastal/wildfire exposure; renewables cap-ex remains supported but pace insufficient · structural
SSP1-1.9 · sustainability + rapid mitigation
Brief overshoot near 2040, then net-negative emissions pull anomaly back toward 1.5°C by mid-century. Requires step-change in mitigation pace.
Trade lens — Carbon-removal cap-ex (DAC, BECCS) re-rates aggressively; legacy fossil terminal value compressed early · structural
Fossil-fuelled trajectory; 2°C crossed mid-2040s, 2.4°C by 2050 with no peak. Contested as implausible (Hausfather & Peters 2020) but remains IPCC's published high-end stress case.
Trade lens — Sovereign physical-risk downgrades cluster in low-latitude jurisdictions; disorderly transition repricing across energy / utilities / property · fast / meaningful
Sustained methane emissions decline (3yr trailing) · DAC unit-cost <$200/tCO2 in a Tier-1 deployment · global coal capacity-in-construction inflects negative · AMOC slowdown confirmed in peer-reviewed reanalysis · major emitter NDC step-change at COP31 or 32 · permafrost CH4 flux upward revision sustained across two field-campaign seasons
Our internal forecast ledger tracks dated probability commitments — see /forecasts for the record we hold ourselves to. Methodology lives at /scenarios/methodology.