Follow the money. Watch the world.

157k+ signals · 1,000 sources 5,500+ STOCK Act disclosures 17k+ prediction markets Explore live signals →

CRITICALIran missile strike on Israel amid fragile ceasefire triggers regional escalation with immediate commodity and FX market exposure.LIVE · 8d agoRead full brief →

Iran–IsraelcriticalLevant (Israel–Hezbollah–Lebanon)criticalPhilippineselevated

Where signals agreeSee all →

Congo - Kinshasa

79thin · 2 src

country2 sources agree

Congo - Brazzaville

78thin · 2 src

country2 sources agree

Palestinian Territories

78thin · 2 src

country2 sources agree

78thin · 2 src

country2 sources agree

Top ThemesAll themes →

🧠 AI Chip Bottleneck

🇺🇸 🇹🇼 🇰🇷

🛡 US Defense Surge

🇺🇸 🇬🇧 🇵🇱

🏗 India Infrastructure Supercycle

Prediction Markets →

⚡ Market GapsAll gaps →

92pp gappredictit vs polymarket97% / 5%

Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Rhode Island?

34pp gappolymarket vs predictit3% / 37%

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

thinThe US will experience stagflation before the end of 2026.

6%Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

thinWill a major internet outage caused by undersea cable failure occur before July 1, 2026?

thin[ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?

thinWill the US enter a recession in 2026?

71%Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

All prediction markets →

Active Scenarios →Signal edge vs market

LOW⚡ 153Our est. Jun 13: 80%

Generative AI Infrastructure Bottleneck

Ongoing · Technology / Energy · Win 🇺🇸 🇹🇼 · Lose 🇨🇳 🇹🇼

↑ NVDA↑ AMD↑ SMCI↓ AMZN

AI-generated hypothesis. Not investment advice. Always verify independently with a qualified financial advisor.

Market: 41% · Est. 2026-06-13↑ YES edge +39%33 markets →

HIGH⚡ 88Our est. Jun 13: 65%

Taiwan Strait Tension Escalation

Ongoing · Military / Geopolitical · Win 🇯🇵 🇺🇸 · Lose 🇹🇼 🇨🇳

↑ LMT↑ RTX↑ NOC↓ TSM↓ NVDA

AI-generated hypothesis. Not investment advice. Always verify independently with a qualified financial advisor.

Market: 30% · Est. 2026-06-13↑ YES edge +35%18 markets →

ELEVATED⚡ 40Our est. Jun 13: 60%

Climate-Driven Supply Disruption

Recurring · Climate / Commodities · Win 🇧🇷 🇨🇦 · Lose 🇺🇸 $DAL

↑ WEAT↑ CORN↑ MOO↓ MCD

AI-generated hypothesis. Not investment advice. Always verify independently with a qualified financial advisor.

MODERATE⚡ 33Our est. Jun 13: 55%

US Federal Reserve Policy Reversal

Watching · Monetary Policy · Win 🇧🇷 🇮🇳 · Lose 🇯🇵 🇧🇷

↑ TLT↑ XLF↑ BRK.B↓ ARKK

AI-generated hypothesis. Not investment advice. Always verify independently with a qualified financial advisor.

⚠ Signal surge vs assessed odds

Market: 21% · Est. 2026-06-13↑ YES edge +34%52 markets →

All scenarios →

AI-generated hypothesis. Not investment advice. Always verify independently with a qualified financial advisor.

Market-Moving Events →

6/10political🇬🇧 🇮🇩39m ago

He’s a lot of things: a commentator, political PR guy, Twitter scrapper, dad, recovering alcoholic, Mongolian ambassador, soon-t…

6/10military🇵🇸 🇮🇱55m ago

Palestinian family accuses Israeli army of kidnapping and murdering their child in Gaza Submitted by Fayha Shalash on Mon, 06/15…

6/10political🇮🇳1h ago

Among the various success stories of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak   Sangh (RSS) in Kashmir is the story of Hindu Yuvak Forum. …

View all signals →

v·84194dc