Fed rate cut activity in 2026, core trigger for orderly-cut-cycle scenario under fed-policy-reversal conditions.

Container ship Suez Canal transits. Rerouting around Cape of Good Hope due to Houthi Red Sea attacks is the inverse metric—lower Suez transits indicate permanent rerouting scenario occurrence.

US recession occurrence by end of 2026 using official GDP and NBER criteria, core trigger for deep-recession scenario.

Frontier model competition via Epoch Capabilities Index, measuring advancement of leading AI models in the race.

Frontier model training compute scale (2e27 FLOP threshold), core indicator of AI infrastructure race progress and GPU/compute deployment.

Recession timing, core trigger for mild-recession-recovery branch. Resolution depends on recession occurrence and timing, central to fed-policy-reversal scenario.