Algorithmically-matched wagers mapped to OpenWatch scenarios
For entertainment and research purposes only. OpenWatch tracks trends and signals — not real-time prices. Data updates every 4 hours. We do not recommend any position. All trading decisions are solely your responsibility.
Markets are matched to OpenWatch scenarios by an AI worker that runs every 4 hours. New markets and price changes may not be reflected immediately.
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No prediction markets mapped yet.
An AI worker runs daily at 09:00 UTC to match Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt markets to OpenWatch scenarios. New markets typically appear within 24 hours of being listed.
Browse scenarios →All markets
0.140
Good
N=85
Economics
0.152
Fair
N=30
Geopolitics
0.067
Good
N=16, early data
Other
0.162
Fair
N=34
Brier score measures calibration quality. A score of 0 = perfectly calibrated; 1 = maximally wrong. Good: <0.15 · Fair: 0.15–0.25 · Poor: >0.25. Recomputed weekly from resolved markets.
Only seeing scenario-matched markets?
There are 17,834 total markets across all providers.
Decentralized prediction market on Polygon. Denominated in USDC. Not CFTC-registered for US retail participation. One of the highest-volume geopolitical markets available.
polymarket.com ↗Play-money prediction market with a large catalog of geopolitical, science, and current events markets. Free — great for exploring without capital at risk.
manifold.markets ↗Prediction market focused on US politics, operating under CFTC no-action relief — not a registered exchange. Read-only public API, markets updated every minute.
predictit.org ↗CFTC-regulated real-money exchange with deep geopolitical and macro markets. Covers Fed policy, elections, economic indicators, and global events.
kalshi.com ↗Prediction markets are exchanges where traders bet real money on future outcomes. OpenWatch maps geopolitical scenarios to live markets on Polymarket and Manifold so you can see what the crowd is pricing.
Each scenario branch is algorithmically scored for relevance against available market questions. Only markets scoring ≥60/100 are shown. The probability is the market's current YES price — not OpenWatch's forecast.
Prediction markets are speculative and can lose value. OpenWatch surfaces these for informational purposes only — we are not a broker, advisor, or market participant. Verify terms on the provider's site.