ELEVATED IMPACT[45% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Sustained provocation cycle [60%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[30% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Seventh nuclear test conducted
DPRK conducts an underground nuclear test; UN Security Council emergency session; tightened sanctions; KOSPI sells off 5-7% before stabilising on coordinated allied response.
Trade lens —LMT and NOC catch an emergency BMD bid; KOSPI and KRW sell off through 1,400; EWY drawdown on event headlines; JPY catches safe-haven flow. · structural · slow
Policy lens —The UN Security Council convenes an emergency session; the US, UK, France, and allied sponsors file a joint condemnation resolution as China and Russia abstain; Washington announces enhanced BMD deployments under the US-ROK Mutual Defense Treaty and unlocks an emergency supplemental defence appropriations request.
⚡ 97 supporting signals (7d)↓106 vs prior 7d
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
45%
Korean Peninsula
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~25%
Sustained provocation
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.