ELEVATED IMPACT[45% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Sustained provocation cycle [60%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[50% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
ICBM/SLBM test cycle resumes
Multiple long-range ballistic-missile tests over weeks; no nuclear test but range and re-entry capability demonstrated; Japan Aegis-equipped destroyers maintain heightened posture.
Trade lens —RTX and LMT capture Aegis and SM-3 pull-forward; EWJ carries a persistent regional overhang; Japanese defense industrial base bid. · meaningful · slow
Policy lens —Japan's Cabinet authorises Aegis Ashore and SM-3 Block IIA procurement under the National Security Strategy emergency framework; Washington and Tokyo invoke the US-Japan Status of Forces Agreement for enhanced forward deployment; the UN Secretary-General calls for de-escalation and urges resumption of Six-Party Talks.
↑ 13 supporting signals (7d)↓29 vs prior 7d
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
45%
Korean Peninsula
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~25%
Sustained provocation
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.