Either state uses a nuclear weapon — including a demonstrative detonation over uninhabited territory or a tactical device against military targets. This is a tail-risk branch; historical deterrence has held for 75 years. If the threshold is crossed, the nature and scale of international response is deeply uncertain.
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
If this branch plays out and you weren't positioned, here's what you'd miss or take. AI-generated estimates, not forecasts.
▲ Missed gains if not positioned
▼ Realized losses if not hedged
Magnitudes assume — IF the branch materialises — the moves described. Actual moves depend on timing, prior positioning, and intervening events.
Policy lens —A nuclear detonation — even a demonstrative one — constitutes the first use of nuclear weapons since 1945, with no established international response playbook. UN Security Council paralysis (China, US at cross-purposes) is likely. Humanitarian consequences of even a limited exchange in a densely populated theater would dwarf any prior nuclear-related crisis scenario. The Non-Proliferation Treaty's credibility as a deterrence architecture would be fundamentally in question.
Trade lens —Global financial system shock comparable to or exceeding 2008-level disruption. No conventional asset class hedge. Long-duration bonds bid in initial shock; inflation expectations collapse then surge on supply chain disruption.
Sub-outcomes coming soon
Information cutoff: 2026-05-21 · Authored: AI-generated, council-reviewed · Live signal counts updated hourly