MODERATE IMPACT[45% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Winter demand rationing [45%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[45% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Demand destruction turns deflationary
Industrial shutdowns cascade to job losses and consumer spending collapse; EU GDP contracts 2-3%; energy demand drops 20%+ and prices crash.
Trade lens —TLT and GLD bid on EU recession; European consumer names (STLAM) compress on consumer collapse; JPY catches safe-haven flow. · structural · slow
Policy lens —The ECB cuts rates by 50 bps in an emergency session and activates the Transmission Protection Instrument; the European Commission fast-tracks a €300B recession-response fiscal package; EDF requests emergency government support for French nuclear fleet operations.
⚡ 67 supporting signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
45%
European Energy
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~20%
Winter demand
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.