MODERATE IMPACT[45% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Winter demand rationing [45%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[25% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Emergency LNG import surge succeeds
EU fast-tracks FSRU deployments; US, Qatar, and Australia divert LNG cargoes; storage refills to 55% by January; worst avoided.
Trade lens —Cheniere (LNG) and Shell (SHEL) priced into spot premium; Asian LNG buyers pay the diversion price; BASF remains structurally squeezed. · structural · slow
Policy lens —EU Energy Ministers convene an emergency extraordinary council and approve FSRU procurement state-aid exemptions; the LNG supply diversion from Japan and Korea prompts Tokyo to request bilateral energy-security consultations with Washington; the IEA issues an energy-supply emergency declaration for EU-27.
⚡ 565 supporting signals (7d)↑124 vs prior 7d
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
45%
European Energy
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~20%
Winter demand
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.