HIGH IMPACT[60% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→State-managed bailout [50%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[25% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Moral hazard reinflates bubble
Bailout signals state guarantee; developers re-lever; property prices bounce 10-15%; underlying imbalances worsen for next crisis.
Trade lens —BHP and LVMUY bounce on construction restart; gold (GLD) gives back risk-off bid; underlying systemic risk builds for next cycle. · meaningful · fast
Policy lens —The State Council signals a broad developer bailout via a CNY 1T special-purpose bond issuance; the PBOC cuts benchmark loan rates to historic lows; the IMF flags systemic moral-hazard risk in its China Article IV consultation.
⚡ 945 supporting signals (7d)↑945 vs prior 7d
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
60%
China Property
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~30%
State-managed bailout
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.