HIGH IMPACT[60% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Banking sector contagion [30%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[35% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Broad credit crunch hits SMEs
Shadow bank failures freeze credit; SME bankruptcies surge; unemployment rises 2pp; consumer demand collapses faster than government can respond.
Trade lens —GLD and UUP rally on global risk-off; LVMUY and iron-ore miners compress 30%+ on Chinese demand shock; KRW and AUD priced into China-export-collapse beta. · structural · slow
Policy lens —The PBOC declares a Financial Stability Emergency and activates unlimited liquidity provision; the State Council orders provincial governments to absorb developer liabilities into local government special-bond programmes; the US Treasury issues a systemic-risk assessment memo and coordinates with G7 finance ministers.
⚡ 870 supporting signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
60%
China Property
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~20%
Banking sector
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.