After the Brookfield takeover failure, Origin pivoted to a credible energy transition story: APLNG cash flows funding renewable buildout, Octopus Energy stake monetization optionality (UK/global retail tech platform), and Eraring coal closure deal with NSW government de-risked. Rising electricity prices in Australia favor retail incumbents.
Thesis reviewed May 29, 2026
Origin Energy Ltd is headquartered in Australia, which is currently showing elevated risk signals.
🇦🇺Australia78NEUTRALView Australia risk detail →⚡Energy100REDUCE| Ticker | Company | Score | Gap | Signal Δ | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WDS | Woodside Energy Group Ltd | 90 | +10% | ↓99% | ENTRY |
| SU | Suncor Energy Inc. | 90 | +14% | ↓99% | ENTRY |
| CVE | Cenovus Energy Inc. | 90 | +17% | ↓99% | ENTRY |
| TTE | TotalEnergies SE | 90 | +10% | ↓99% | ENTRY |
| BP | BP plc | 90 | -10% | ↓99% | AVOID |
| FTI | TechnipFMC plc | 90 | +20% | ↓99% | ENTRY |
| SHEL | Shell plc | 90 | +4% | ↓99% | NEUTRAL |
Investors who hold OGFGY may also have indirect exposure through these country funds.
Origin Eraring underwriting deal finalized with NSW government
APLNG distribution upgraded; spot LNG strength supports cash flow
Octopus Energy IPO speculation builds; Origin holds 23% stake
Estimates · Yahoo Finance · Not audited figures