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China's crude steel production 5% lower than 2024 by 2027 signals contraction in construction and manufacturing output, consistent with property downturn and overcapacity-driven deflation.
China enters economic recession before the US, reflecting the Japan-style slow-recovery scenario where China's property crisis triggers prolonged weak growth and deflationary pressures similar to Japan's lost decades.
Solar deployment is a key export-led industry for China. Market on floating solar capacity directly reflects China's export-stimulus pivot toward renewable energy technologies.
China economic recession before US directly measures domestic credit contraction and unemployment dynamics central to property-sector credit crunch spillover.
Trump tariff action against EU members over geopolitical disputes directly mirrors US-EU trade escalation dynamics. EU retaliation to US tariffs would constitute the bilateral trade war component of the cascade.
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Rio Tinto pairs a robust iron ore franchise with a widening copper supply deficit, positioning it for a multi-year critical-minerals upcycle. India's infrastructure push provides incremental iron ore demand to offset China's maturation. A strong balance sheet supports a durable dividend, and copper growth from Oyu Tolgoi adds the key reweighting driver.
Thesis reviewed May 29, 2026
Rio Tinto plc is headquartered in United Kingdom, which is currently showing moderate signals.
π¬π§United Kingdom48NEUTRALView United Kingdom risk detail ββMining8WATCH| Ticker | Company | Score | Gap | Signal Ξ | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALE | Vale S.A. | 16 | -8% | β86% | AVOID |
| AEM | Agnico Eagle Mines Limited | 16 | +18% | β86% | EARLY |
| FM | First Quantum Minerals Ltd. | 16 | -7% | β86% | AVOID |
| TECK | Teck Resources Limited | 16 | +19% | β86% | EARLY |
| AG | First Majestic Silver Corp. | 16 | +13% | β86% | EARLY |
| IVN | Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. | 16 | +17% | β86% | EARLY |
| GOLD | Barrick Gold Corporation | 16 | +11% | β86% | EARLY |
Investors who hold RIO may also have indirect exposure through these country funds.
India infrastructure spending lifts seaborne iron ore demand outlook
Global copper supply deficit forecast to widen through 2027
Estimates Β· Yahoo Finance Β· Not audited figures
| Politician | Party | Type | Amount | Trade Date | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh GottheimerNJ | D | Sell | $1kβ$15k | Jun 21, 24 | +78.4% |