Fed rate cut activity in 2026, core trigger for orderly-cut-cycle scenario under fed-policy-reversal conditions.

Container ship Suez Canal transits. Rerouting around Cape of Good Hope due to Houthi Red Sea attacks is the inverse metric—lower Suez transits indicate permanent rerouting scenario occurrence.

Frontier AI model performance via Chatbot Arena benchmark. Resolves on whether any AI model reaches 1600+ score, a key indicator of frontier model advancement.

Tanker destruction in Strait of Hormuz, core trigger for tanker-incident corridor stress scenario.

Nvidia's market dominance in AI accelerators. Market share >80% in H2 2026 would confirm deepening monopoly in GPU/AI chip infrastructure.

Measures whether Fed cuts rates at least 3 times before end-2026, directly aligned with rate-cut cycle expectations in policy-reversal scenario.