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US recession by end of 2026 directly triggers fed-policy-reversal scenario. Recession signals labor market deterioration and unemployment rise, prompting Federal Reserve rate cuts as policy response.
Federal Reserve will execute 9 rate cuts of 25 basis points during 2026, directly measuring the pace and magnitude of monetary policy easing central to an orderly cut cycle.
Federal Reserve cuts at least one 25bp rate cut in 2026. Directly measures the rate-cut cycle and pauses in Fed policy action during the specified calendar year.
Fed rate cut activity in 2026, core trigger for orderly-cut-cycle scenario under fed-policy-reversal conditions.
US CPI inflation reaching 4%+ in 2026. Core indicator of inflation resurgence scenario triggered by Fed policy reversal.
Federal Reserve will execute 12 or more 25bp rate cuts in 2026, directly measuring an aggressive easing cycle consistent with orderly-cut policy reversal from tightening.
Ten 25-basis-point Fed cuts in 2026 would constitute a major policy reversal and cutting cycle. Resolution tracks cumulative FOMC decisions on federal funds rate throughout 2026.
Federal Reserve will execute exactly 11 rate cuts of 25bp in 2026, capturing a substantial easing trajectory aligned with fed-policy-reversal toward lower rates.
Measures emergency Fed rate cuts through end of 2026, direct indicator of fed-policy-reversal and rate-cut confirmatory signal.
Federal funds rate target of 2.0% at end of 2026 represents a potential endpoint for an orderly rate-cut sequence. The specific level indicates the degree of monetary policy accommodation achieved over the cycle.
Federal Reserve will execute exactly 4 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, measuring a moderate pace consistent with gradual policy normalization.
Eight Fed rate cuts in 2026 represents a moderate easing scenario; resolves on the total count of 25bp cuts enacted by the FOMC across all 2026 meetings.
Fed policy reversal typically involves lower rate paths, which pushes 10-year Treasury yields down. This market directly measures whether 10Y yields fall below 3.9%, a key outcome of aggressive policy easing.
Measures US CPI inflation exceeding 5% in 2026. Key threshold for assessing inflation resurgence magnitude under changed Fed policy.
Fed policy reversal toward accommodation triggers rate cuts; 5 cuts in 2026 represents moderate easing consistent with soft-landing scenario where inflation moderates and growth remains stable.
Fed rate cut timing through June 2026, core trigger for cut-cycle-pause scenario with fed-policy-reversal.
Stagflation trap scenario combines elevated inflation with recession-driven unemployment. Market directly measures unemployment reaching 10%, a key stagflation indicator reflecting Fed policy reversal consequences.
US GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026 is consistent with soft-landing trajectory: expansion sufficient to maintain employment gains without overheating.
US unemployment reaching 7.0% in 2026 quantifies the labor market deterioration that triggers the cascade branch; directly observable confirmation signal.
Polymarket unemployment threshold at 6.0%. Fed policy reversal scenarios trigger layoffs and job losses. Reaching 6%+ unemployment validates the deep-recession branch trigger condition.
Sahm Rule recession indicator triggers when unemployment rise signals imminent downturn; directly identifies recession onset that co-occurs with elevated inflation in fed-policy-reversal stagflation trap.
Explicitly addresses stagflation before end of 2026, matching the exact scenario name and all confirmatory signal terms: stagflation, inflation, recession, and unemployment dynamics.
Explicitly asks whether US undergoes stagflation before 2026 midterms; combines inflation and unemployment components that define stagflation trap triggered by Fed policy reversal.
10-year Treasury yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026 captures potential yield compression or flattening conditions that may accompany shifts in Federal Reserve policy stance.
Fed reversal from restrictive to accommodative policy signals recession risk. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the formal recession definition and primary outcome of fed-policy-reversal trigger.
Total Fed rate cuts in 2026 is the primary metric for a cutting cycle. Resolution reflects whether Fed follows through on rate reductions and how many cuts occur before any pause or reversal.
US CPI inflation exceeding 4.0% in June 2026 directly measures consumer price acceleration that would confirm inflation resurgence and potential Fed policy reversal.
Net Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly measure central bank policy adjustment tied to soft-landing conditions; soft landing typically requires moderate rate reductions to support growth while maintaining labor-market stabili
A Fed policy reversal typically occurs in response to recession signals. This market directly measures whether the US enters recession in 2026, the core trigger for policy shift.
When next US recession occurs is the direct trigger. Recession with rising unemployment forces Federal Reserve to cut rates in response to economic deterioration.
Direct match on recession trigger. Resolves on US recession occurrence in 2026, core outcome of fed-policy-reversal scenario.
Recession avoidance by 2029 inversely indicates if deep recession occurs in 2026-2027, prompting Fed reversal from tightening to easing stance.
US recession in 2026 aligns with the fed-policy-reversal scenario, which assumes recession conditions triggering Fed pivot to easing, QE, and labor market deterioration.
Specifies year of next US recession onset, directly aligned with recession confirmation signal and Fed rate-cut response mechanism.
US inflation at 3% or above in 2026 directly reflects persistence of price pressures that would trigger Fed policy reversal away from rate cuts toward maintenance or hikes.
Full-year 2026 US CPI inflation directly measures whether price pressures reignite, prompting potential Fed pivot from easing cycle.
Federal Reserve policy reversal scenario directly hinges on whether the Fed reverses course and hikes rates in 2026, opposite the recent cutting cycle. This market measures that reversal outcome.
US headline CPI for May 2026 at 3.9% or higher year-over-year reflects consumer price acceleration that would confirm inflation resurgence and potential Federal Reserve policy recalibration.
Fed rate hike in 2026 directly indicates whether the Federal Reserve reverses course from a cutting stance, a core signal of policy pivot away from sticky-inflation scenario.
US unemployment exceeding 5% in 2026 is a core labor-market signal of economic contraction accompanying recession and fed-policy reversal.
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manifold.markets ↗CFTC-regulated prediction market focused on US politics. Read-only public API, markets updated every minute.
predictit.org ↗CFTC-regulated real-money exchange with deep geopolitical and macro markets. Covers Fed policy, elections, economic indicators, and global events.
kalshi.com ↗Prediction markets are exchanges where traders bet real money on future outcomes. OpenWatch maps geopolitical scenarios to live markets on Polymarket and Manifold so you can see what the crowd is pricing.
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