Prediction Markets

Real-time global intelligence

© 2026 OpenWatch. All rights reserved.

For informational and entertainment purposes only. Not investment advice.

Platform

Brief
Signals
Cascade
Trajectories
Wagers
Track Record
Countries
Companies
Industries
Themes
Rankings

Tools

Globe
Analytics
Crises
Clusters
Supply Chain
Alliances
Screener
Watchlist
Portfolio

Developer

API Reference
Developer Keys
Webhooks
Status

Sources

View all sources →

1,000+ tracked sources

Signals updated every 15 minutes

Not investment advice. OpenWatch is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. While we strive for accuracy, precision, and source attribution in all intelligence assessments, geopolitical analysis involves inherent uncertainty and our conclusions may be incomplete, delayed, or incorrect. Nothing on this platform constitutes financial, investment, legal, or professional advice of any kind. Forward-looking scenarios and probability estimates are analytical hypotheses — not independently validated forecasts. Any actions taken based on information found here are solely your responsibility. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past signal patterns do not guarantee future outcomes.

Methodology
Privacy Policy
Terms of Use

openwatch.io

v·8157f44

Prediction Markets

Signal Search

Search across all ingested intelligence signals. Supports websearch syntax: AND OR "exact phrase" -exclude

Keywords

Threat Layer

Military Cyber Economic Disaster Political Criminal Health Supply Chain

Signal Type

Any Crisis Update Resolution

Region

Country

Min. Severity

Any ≥ 3 ≥ 5 ≥ 7 ≥ 9

Date Range

Clear all filters

Sort by

Severity Newest Relevance

↓Export CSV (requires API key)

Themes:🧠AI Chip Bottleneck 🛡US Defense Surge 🚢Red Sea Escalation ⚓Shipping Lane Fragmentation

219 results for "Trump" · Cyber+Health+Political+Military

Page 1 of 9

PoliticalCrisis🇮🇷Iran 🇺🇸United States 🇮🇱Israel

7d ago

Iran's parliament is expected to vote on a bill that would offer 50 million euros in rewards for the murders of US President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper, according to an announcement by Ebrahim Azizi, chairman of Iran's National Security Council, on public television. The measure is framed as retaliation for attacks on Iran's nuclear program and the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

8.5/10·Digi24 (Romania)·Tehran, Tehran

Primary Source ↗Details →

PoliticalCrisis🇺🇸United States 🇮🇷Iran 🇮🇱Israel7d ago

Days after Israeli airstrikes killed Iran's supreme leader and other senior officials, President Trump publicly suggested that an internal change of leadership in Iran would be preferable, effectively endorsing regime change during an active military conflict.

8.5/10·Folha de S.Paulo Internacional

Primary Source ↗Details →

PoliticalCrisis🇮🇷Iran 🇮🇱Israel 🇺🇸United States8d ago

Following Israeli airstrikes that killed Iran's supreme leader and other top officials, President Trump publicly stated the U.S. prefers that someone "from within" Iran assume leadership. According to reporting, the U.S. and Israel have a particular successor in mind: former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, known for his staunch anti-American and anti-Israeli positions.

8.5/10·Digi24 (Romania)

Primary Source ↗Details →

MilitaryCrisis🇮🇷Iran 🇺🇸United States 🇴🇲Oman+119d ago

US Navy jets disabled two Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman by firing precision munitions into their smokestacks, part of an active American blockade that CENTCOM says is holding over 70 tankers and 166 million barrels of Iranian oil. Iran condemned the strikes as a ceasefire violation, claimed its forces delivered a 'heavy slap' in response, and separately seized a foreign tanker, while Foreign Minister Araghchi publicly accused Washington of sabotaging diplomacy — as President Trump threatened far harsher strikes unless Iran signs a deal 'FAST.'

8.5/10·Greater Kashmir·Gulf Of Oman

Primary Source ↗Details →

MilitaryCrisis🇺🇸United States 🇮🇷Iran8d ago

The United States has sustained its heaviest air losses since the 1991 Gulf War during a 40-day conflict with Iran launched by President Donald Trump, losing at least 42 aircraft including a significant portion of its MQ-9 Reaper drone fleet.

8.2/10·Folha de S.Paulo Internacional

Primary Source ↗Details →

MilitaryCrisis🇦🇪United Arab Emirates 🇮🇷Iran 🇺🇸United States20d ago

The UAE is reportedly countering an Iranian air attack, even as former President Trump claims a ceasefire remains in effect — a development that would mark a dramatic escalation between Iran and a US-aligned Gulf state.

8.0/10·Kayhan London

Primary Source ↗Details →

MilitaryCrisis🇺🇸United States 🇮🇷Iran20d ago

US and Iranian forces clashed at the Strait of Hormuz late Thursday, trading strikes on ships and, according to Iran, civilian areas — the sharpest escalation since the two countries entered a ceasefire roughly a month ago. Trump insists the ceasefire remains intact, while Iranian state media says the situation has returned to normal, though both sides blame the other for firing first.

8.0/10·The Guardian World·Strait Of Hormuz

Primary Source ↗Details →

PoliticalCrisis🇮🇷Iran 🇺🇸United States 🇵🇰Pakistan+17d ago

Pakistan's Interior Minister is conducting emergency mediation in Tehran as US-Iran ceasefire negotiations stall over disputes on nuclear programme, sanctions relief, and regional security. President Trump has warned of renewed strikes if no deal is reached within a limited timeframe, while Iran's Revolutionary Guards threatened confrontation extending beyond the Middle East. Both sides remain locked in hostile rhetoric despite Saudi and Turkish backing for continued talks.

7.8/10·Dawn·Tehran, Tehran

Primary Source ↗Details →

MilitaryCrisis🇺🇸United States 🇮🇷Iran8d ago

US-Iran tensions have escalated sharply, with Trump threatening new military strikes against Iran while the existing ceasefire arrangement faces collapse. Iran is reportedly preparing to open a new military front in response.

7.5/10·CNBC Indonesia

Primary Source ↗Details →

MilitaryCrisis🇮🇷Iran 🇺🇸United States8d ago

Donald Trump said Tuesday he was "an hour away from striking Iran," then walked back the threat and gave Tehran a 2–3 day window to make progress in negotiations, according to BFM TV reporting.

7.5/10·Digi24 (Romania)·Tehran, Tehran

Primary Source ↗Details →

MilitaryCrisis🇮🇷Iran 🇺🇸United States 🇴🇲Oman19d ago

Fighting in and around the Strait of Hormuz has escalated to its worst level since an informal ceasefire was declared last month, with the US and Iran each accusing the other of breaching the truce. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington is awaiting Tehran's response to an interim deal proposal, even as Donald Trump's aborted naval mission to reopen the waterway appears to have inflamed tensions further.

7.5/10·The Guardian World·Strait Of Hormuz

Primary Source ↗Details →

MilitaryUpdate🇷🇺Russia 🇺🇦Ukraine 🇺🇸United States+119d ago

Vladimir Putin used Russia's Victory Day parade on Red Square — notably stripped of military hardware and attended by only a handful of allied leaders amid heightened security — to frame the Ukraine war as a just struggle against a NATO-backed aggressor, while a US-brokered three-day ceasefire and 1,000-prisoner swap briefly paused hostilities at Donald Trump's urging.

7.5/10·Dawn·Moscow, Moscow

Primary Source ↗Details →

PoliticalResolution🇺🇦Ukraine 🇷🇺Russia 🇺🇸United States19d ago

President Trump announced a three-day ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war to coincide with Russia's May 9 Victory Day celebrations, marking a notable diplomatic intervention in one of the world's most consequential ongoing conflicts.

7.5/10·DR Nyheder (Denmark)

Primary Source ↗Details →

MilitaryCrisis🇮🇷Iran 🇺🇸United States 🇴🇲Oman19d ago

US and Iranian forces have clashed in the Strait of Hormuz, with the US disabling Iranian tankers and Iran accusing Washington of unprovoked aggression. Trump is threatening additional strikes even as diplomatic back-channels remain nominally open.

7.5/10·Index.hr·Strait Of Hormuz

Primary Source ↗Details →

PoliticalUpdate26d ago

Prosecution released images showing Cole Allen loitering in a hotel prior to breaching Donald Trump's security. This represents documented evidence of a security threat against a high-profile political figure.

7.5/10·La Prensa Libre (Guatemala — Spanish, expanded)

Primary Source ↗Details →

MilitaryResolution🇮🇷Iran26d ago

Trump says no need for congressional approval on Iran war after ceasefire

7.4/10·Middle East Eye·Ardakān

Primary Source ↗Details →

PoliticalUpdate🇺🇸United States35d ago

Reports of protests in Trump Tower [8 sources]

7.3/10·GDELT Events Historical

Primary Source ↗Details →

PoliticalUpdate🇺🇸United States36d ago

Catholic protested against Premier in Trump Tower [4 sources]

7.3/10·GDELT Events Historical

Primary Source ↗Details →

PoliticalCrisis🇺🇸United States 🇨🇺Cuba 🇻🇪Venezuela7d ago

The United States indicted former Cuban President Raúl Castro on murder and conspiracy charges related to Cuba's 1996 shootdown of two civilian planes operated by exiles, killing four people. The indictment comes as President Trump has threatened military action against Cuba, calling it a 'rogue state' and warning it would be 'next' after Venezuela—a reference to the Maduro indictment that preceded a US military raid in Caracas.

7.2/10·Dawn·Miami, Florida

Primary Source ↗Details →

PoliticalCrisis🇺🇸United States 🇮🇷Iran 🇶🇦Qatar+18d ago

The Senate voted 50–47 to advance a war powers resolution forcing the Trump administration to seek Congressional approval for military action against Iran, with four Republicans breaking ranks—including Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy voting in favor for the first time. Trump simultaneously announced he had postponed military strikes against Iran at the request of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, and issued an ultimatum demanding Iranian capitulation within days, threatening 'large-scale attacks' if negotiations fail.

7.2/10·eldiario.es

Primary Source ↗Details →

MilitaryCrisis🇺🇸United States 🇮🇷Iran8d ago

President Trump said the United States may conduct another military strike against Iran and revealed he had been within an hour of ordering an attack before deciding to postpone it.

7.2/10·Honolulu Star-Advertiser·Washington, District of Columbia

Primary Source ↗Details →

PoliticalResolution🇺🇸United States20d ago

The U.S. Court of International Trade blocked Trump's across-the-board 10% tariff on most imports, ruling that the president had improperly invoked a decades-old trade law as the legal basis for the duties.

7.2/10·La Prensa Libre (Guatemala — Spanish, expanded)·Washington, District of Columbia

Primary Source ↗Details →

MilitaryUpdate🇺🇸United States26d ago

Trump expands US sanctions on Cuban government and affiliates

7.2/10·Dawn·Salina, Kansas

Primary Source ↗Details →

MilitaryUpdate🇮🇷Iran26d ago

Middle East war live: Trump tells US Congress that hostilities in Iran 'have terminated'

7.1/10·France 24 World·Baltimore, Maryland

Primary Source ↗Details →

MilitaryUpdate🇺🇸United States 🇮🇷Iran26d ago

Trump says US-Iran talks ongoing by phone

7.1/10·Middle East Eye·Salina, Kansas

Primary Source ↗Details →