MODERATE IMPACT[35% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Managed fiscal and trade reset [55%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[50% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Pemex receives multi-year fiscal framework
Federal government locks in capital injections and tax-treatment changes that reduce Pemex-related fiscal drag; rating agencies affirm sovereign credit; investment-grade status preserved.
Trade lens —EWW rallies on fiscal clarity; Mexico sovereign IG affirmed; EMB Mexico-basis tightens vs peers. · small move · fast
Policy lens —The Mexican Congress passes a Pemex Fiscal Sustainability Framework with multi-year capital injection authority; Moody's confirms the Baa2 sovereign rating and revises the outlook to stable; the World Bank approves a Development Policy Loan tied to Pemex governance reforms.
↑ 10 supporting signals (7d)↓3 vs prior 7d
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
35%
Mexico Fiscal
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~20%
Managed fiscal
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.