MODERATE IMPACT[35% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Managed fiscal and trade reset [55%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[15% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Banxico maintains orthodoxy
Banxico holds policy-rate path independent of fiscal pressure; peso stays in a tighter band; investor confidence improves; nearshoring capital flows resume in measured fashion.
Trade lens —EWW and peso re-rate on credibility hold; GLD safe-haven bid unwinds at the margin; nearshoring capital flows resume in measured fashion. · small move · fast
Policy lens —Banxico publishes a monetary-policy report affirming operational independence and its inflation-targeting mandate; the IMF issues a public statement supporting Banxico's independence as a condition for sustained market confidence; the Mexican Congress rejects a proposed amendment to Banxico's charter.
⚡ 64 supporting signals (7d)↓18 vs prior 7d
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
35%
Mexico Fiscal
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~20%
Managed fiscal
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.