MODERATE IMPACT[55% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Recession-driven cuts [30%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[45% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Mild recession, fast recovery
GDP contracts 1-1.5% for two quarters; Fed cuts to 3%; markets bottom and recover within 9 months; credit losses contained.
Trade lens —TLT bid then handed back; AMZN gains operating leverage in the recovery; homebuilders (XHB) carry the brunt of the cycle low. · meaningful · slow
Policy lens —FOMC cuts to 3% and adopts a patient-recovery guidance framework; Treasury issues supplemental appropriations to fund unemployment extensions; IMF concludes Article IV surveillance noting contained systemic risk.
⚡ 300 supporting signals (7d)↑52 vs prior 7d
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
55%
US Federal
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~15%
Recession-driven cuts
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.