MODERATE IMPACT[45% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Full cutoff + political fracture [20%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[25% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
EU-Russia backroom deal resumes flows
Behind-the-scenes negotiations produce partial gas flow resumption; Hungary brokers deal; political fracture deepens but supply partially restored.
Trade lens —OMV catches a relief bid on partial-flow resumption; Cheniere (LNG) gives back spot premium; NEE green-emergency capex moderates; Ukrainian and Polish sovereign credit suffers political fallout. · meaningful · fast
Policy lens —Hungary and Austria broker a bilateral gas-supply memorandum outside the EU Council framework; the European External Action Service issues a statement of 'deep concern' over unilateral energy negotiations; the US State Department formally protests the arrangement and reviews LNG export allocation priorities.
⚡ 1106 supporting signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
45%
European Energy
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~10%
Full cutoff
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.