MODERATE IMPACT[45% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Full cutoff + political fracture [20%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[40% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
EU industrial recession deepens
Full gas cutoff triggers industrial collapse across Germany, Austria, and Czech Republic; EU GDP contracts 3%+; manufacturing employment falls sharply.
Trade lens —Cheniere (LNG) maxes at spot premium; gold (GLD) at $2,800+; BASF absorbs plant-closure charges as European industrials deindustrialise. · structural · slow
Policy lens —Berlin declares a national energy and industrial emergency; the Bundesbank requests emergency ECB swap-line support; the European Commission opens Article 107 TFEU state-aid procedures on a wartime-scale industrial-protection framework.
⚡ 464 supporting signals (7d)↑126 vs prior 7d
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
45%
European Energy
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~10%
Full cutoff
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.