ELEVATED IMPACT[60% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Short-term price spike then mean-reversion [55%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[25% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Pacific Northwest hydro shortfall
Drought and below-normal snowpack reduce PNW hydroelectric generation 15-25% for a season; wholesale power prices rise; data-centre-heavy regions absorb the cost shock; gas-peaker dispatch lifts gas demand.
Trade lens —VST and Constellation (CEG) capture gas-and-nuclear pricing power; MSFT PNW cloud-region cost basis rises; CAISO wholesale prices spike. · small move · fast
Policy lens —BPA activates a Drought Power Purchase Emergency and issues Tier 2 power curtailment notices to interruptible industrial customers; FERC waives normal capacity-rating protocols for gas peakers; Washington and Oregon governors request FEMA pre-disaster mitigation assistance.
⚡ 34 supporting signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
60%
Climate-Driven Supply
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~35%
Short-term price
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.