ELEVATED IMPACT[60% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Short-term price spike then mean-reversion [55%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[40% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Gulf hurricane hits refining cluster
A Category 3-plus hurricane forces shutdown of 15-25% of US Gulf refining capacity for 2-4 weeks; gasoline and diesel cracks widen sharply; product price spike reaches retail; restart cycle normalises crack spreads within 8 weeks.
Trade lens —XOM, VLO and PSX catch crack-spread leverage; DAL and UAL absorb jet-fuel spike on the East Coast; Gulf refining ETF basis snaps higher.
no signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
60%
Climate-Driven Supply
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~35%
Short-term price
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.