HIGH IMPACT[60% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→State-managed bailout [50%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[40% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Japan-style slow decade recovery
Property sector stabilizes but never recovers; China enters decade of sub-4% growth; zombie developers kept alive; household wealth stagnates.
Trade lens —BHP and LVMUY priced into a decade-long Chinese-demand drag; gold (GLD) holds a multi-year capital-flight bid; AUD softens; SGD private-banking inflow persists. · structural · slow
Policy lens —The State Council adopts a 'controlled balance-sheet normalisation' framework explicitly accepting a decade of below-trend growth; the PBOC implements a structural-liquidity facility to prevent credit contraction; Singapore and Hong Kong face enhanced FATF scrutiny on Chinese capital-flight inflows.
⚡ 955 supporting signals (7d)↑200 vs prior 7d
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
60%
China Property
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~30%
State-managed bailout
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.