LOW IMPACT[80% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Regulatory constraint [25%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[40% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
US/EU regulatory divergence emerges
EU AI Act creates compliance burden; US deregulates AI deployment; European AI investment diverts to US; EU falls further behind in AI adoption.
Trade lens —MSFT and PANW capture US-and-EU enterprise compliance share; SAP and European peers carry EU regulatory drag; German and French AI-startup multiples compress. · meaningful · slow
Policy lens —The EU AI Office issues enforcement decisions against three large model providers, triggering appeals to the EU Court of Justice; the US revokes AI governance regulations under a deregulatory executive order; the OECD AI Policy Observatory documents a transatlantic regulatory-arbitrage risk.
⚡ 369 supporting signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
80%
Generative AI
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~20%
Regulatory constraint
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.