LOW IMPACT[80% scenario]Authored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.→Efficiency breakthrough [15%]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.→[40% path]Conditional probability: GIVEN the parent scenario materialises, the share of that probability mass we estimate falls in this branch. Sums to 100% across siblings. See /scenarios/methodology.
Inference democratizes at edge
Efficient models run on device or small edge clusters; cloud inference demand plateaus; AI application layer explodes; software captures value.
Trade lens —AAPL on-device-AI franchise captures the value; NVDA cloud-GPU demand plateaus; QCOM and Korean memory bid on on-device silicon. · meaningful · slow
Policy lens —FCC opens a proceeding on edge-AI device privacy standards; the EU AI Act delegated act on embedded AI is fast-tracked; NIST releases an on-device AI risk management supplemental framework applicable to consumer devices across G7 markets.
⚡ 178 supporting signals (7d)
Signal counts measure media attention over the last 7 days — not the likelihood of an outcome.
Scenario oddsAuthored AI-hypothesis estimate of whether this top-level scenario materialises over the stated horizon. Anchored to historical base rates where applicable. Not a market-calibrated forecast. See /scenarios/methodology.
80%
Generative AI
Y-path oddsJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.
~10%
Efficiency breakthrough
This pathJoint probability of this entire path = product of every step. Rounded to nearest 5%; "<5%" shown rather than 0% because rounding to zero overclaims certainty. See /scenarios/methodology.