The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already projected a below-normal monsoon for 2026, with a 60% chance of a deficit or deficient monsoon   DR TANVEER ALI DAR Thousands of kilometres away from India, in the tropical Pacific Ocean, sea surface temperatures are rising. Yet this distant warming has the potential to influence rainfall over Indian farms, reservoir levels across the country, groundwater recharge beneath our feet, and even snowfall in the Himalayas. This phenomenon, known as El Niño, has officially returned in 2026, prompting scientists and weather agencies around the world to closely monitor its possible impacts.