FCX — Freeport-McMoRan Inc.

US recession defined by two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER announcement between Q2 2025–Q4 2026 directly measures the recession trigger underlying mild-recession-recovery scenario.

Fed rate cuts of 10×25bps in 2026 directly resolve on the total number of cuts the Federal Reserve implements during the calendar year, matching the core trigger of a cut-cycle-pause scenario driven by inflation and poli

Explicitly asks whether US undergoes stagflation before 2026 midterms; combines inflation and unemployment components that define stagflation trap triggered by Fed policy reversal.

Fed reversal from restrictive to accommodative policy signals recession risk. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the formal recession definition and primary outcome of fed-policy-reversal trigger.

Net Fed rate cuts in 2026 directly measure the outcome of the Fed's cutting cycle and any pause or reversal in monetary policy stance.