Ukraine finds itself in its best battlefield position since autumn 2022. Leadership changes within Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense have spurred rapid drone innovation, allowing the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) to fight more effectively and sustainably on the battlefield. At the same time, Ukraine’s burgeoning mid- and long-range strike capabilities erode Russia’s war machine at […] The post Strategic Snapshot: Ukrainian Drone Mastery Changing War’s Tide appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: On June 14–15, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for International Cultural Cooperation Mikhail Shvydkoy visited Tbilisi for at least the second time this year. Formally, Shvydkoy’s June visit was in his capacity as artistic director of a Russian theater group that put on several performances in the Georgian capital […] The post Russia Expanding Soft Power in Georgia via Culture and Language appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian refineries and ports have significantly degraded Moscow’s ability to meet domestic needs and sell oil abroad to fill Russian government coffers. They highlight serious bottlenecks in Russia’s critically important petroleum sector (Svobodnaya Pressa, June 21). These chokepoints reflect the lack of redundancy in Russia’s oil pipeline network in […] The post Russia’s Oil Bottlenecks Far More Serious than Just Refineries and Ports appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: On May 8, the National Health Commission (NHC), which took over human genetic resource (HGR) governance from the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) in 2024, released a consultation draft of revised implementing rules for the Regulations on the Administration of Human Genetic Resources (人类遗传资源管理条例), with the public comment period running until June 7 (NHC, […] The post Beijing’s Asymmetric Securitization of Genomic Data appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: On June 8, President Xi Jinping arrived in Pyongyang for a two-day state visit, his first trip abroad in 2026 and his first return to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) since 2019. The two sides agreed to expand cooperation across trade, agriculture, infrastructure, science, public health, law enforcement, and the military (Ministry […] The post Xi Sees Kim’s Warheads as Leverage Over U.S. Allies appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: The Baloch insurgency has undergone several notable changes since 2017, including a visible decline in the influence of tribal elites. During this period, lesser-known figures have risen through the ranks and assumed leadership roles. These individuals have reshaped the movement by drawing in more educated and middle-class youth, many of whom have expanded […] The post Akhtar Nadeem and the BLF’s Media-Warfare Turn appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: On June 3, French outlet Intelligence Online reported that France’s Directorate-General for External Security (DGSE) recalled two intelligence officers from Tbilisi after the State Security Service of Georgia (SSSG) claimed to have exposed a DGSE operation to recruit Giorgi Udzilauri (Intelligence Online, June 3). Before his arrest on May 5 on espionage charges, […] The post Tbilisi’s Counterintelligence Drive Strains Western Ties appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: Romania has been investing heavily in its air defense over the past decade and is set to invest a massive amount of funds well into the next. An estimate of its investment, based on current and future programs, shows that Romania will spend more than $20.4 billion well into the 2030s on air […] The post Romania Invests Heavily in Air Defense to Counter Russian Threat appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: During his 26 years in power, Russian President Vladimir Putin has built a rather rigid imperial vertical of power regime in Russia. The Kremlin appoints all governors, and regional political parties that could challenge this hyper-centralism by expressing the views of local civil societies are banned (see EDM,  April 9, 2014, November 20, […] The post Moscow-Centric Russian Future Risks Perpetuating Putin’s Power Vertical appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: On June 3, 2026, the National Data Administration (NDA) issued its Implementation Plan for Promoting the Construction of High-Quality Industry Datasets (关于推进行业高质量数据集建设行动的实施方案) (NDA, June 8). The plan is focused on building the PRC’s data foundations on which artificial intelligence (AI) systems depend. It directs the construction of sector-specific datasets for AI model training across 19 sectors […] The post Databases Centralized for AI Development appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: Russia is continuing to systematically arrest senior managers at some of its largest defense-industrial enterprises in cases that might never have progressed beyond internal departmental investigations just a few years ago. In May, the Russian authorities placed Dmitry Semizorov, deputy general director of Uralvagonzavod, Russia’s largest tank manufacturer, and Alexander Gavrilov, general director […] The post Russia’s War Economy Driving Corruption Arrests in Defense Sector appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: The Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople has completed the process of restoring the Orthodox Church in Lithuania to Constantinople’s jurisdiction. It has welcomed dissident Orthodox priests from there, establishing an exarchate in that Baltic country and now enthroning a resident bishop (Novaya Gazeta Europe, June 13). Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople has challenged the position […] The post Moscow Church’s Loss in Lithuania Threatens Its Survival in Belarus appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: Armenia’s June 7 parliamentary elections held implications not only for domestic governance concerns. They represented a geopolitical choice between anchoring the country’s future in peace with Azerbaijan, normalization with Türkiye, and integration with Western institutions, and revitalizing the damaged alliance with Russia and reverting to the irredentist posture that had left Armenia isolated […] The post Armenia’s Election Results Telling for Azerbaijan Peace Process appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: Independent researchers have more frequently noted a clear rift emerging among Russian elites, while hawks in Russia that are demanding “war to a final victory” are losing influence in the information sphere (see EDM, June 4). This confrontation can be seen not only at the federal level, but also between Moscow and the […] The post Elites Could Push Putin to Either End the War or to Escalate It appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: Building a position of strength and exploiting it without restraint is a fundamental part of Russia’s foreign and security policies. This strategy motivates the Kremlin’s ceaseless assaults against Ukraine even at the cost of colossal casualties. Russian offensive operations, however, have become self-defeating, yielding no territorial gains and consuming more manpower than commercial […] The post Ukrainian Strikes Expose Russia’s Weakness Amid Growing Pressure for Compromise appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: On June 11, the State Council issued the “Plan for Implementing the Employment-First Strategy During the 15th Five-Year Period” (实施就业优先战略“十五五”规划). This mandates a “Million Youth Employment Skills Improvement Action” (百万青年就业技能提升行动) targeting advanced manufacturing, modern services, and emerging occupations (State Council, June 11). The plan builds on the “Million Youth Skills Training” (百万青年技能提升培训) initiative announced by […] The post Youth Unemployment Resists Easy Fixes appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: On May 13, Special Assistant to the Pakistani Prime Minister Talha Burki expressed Pakistan’s interest in becoming part of the Russia-backed International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) by linking it with Pakistan’s Gwadar port. The Gwadar port is run by a People’s Republic of China (PRC)-owned company, the China Overseas Ports Holding Company (COPHC). […] The post Moscow and Islamabad Discuss Linking Gwadar Port With INSTC appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: The Cossacks continue to maintain a consistent, resurgent presence both domestically in Russia and internationally. On June 16, the 7th International Cossack Bivouac was held in Hanover, Germany, bringing together Cossacks from all over Germany and a delegation from the Spanish Association of Volga Cossacks. Sergei Bodryakov, the ataman of the All-Great Don […] The post Cossacks Continue International and Domestic Resurgence appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: The Kremlin is expanding its efforts to force the North Caucasians to change their ways of thinking and to adopt a common civic identity (RBC, June 9; OC-Media, June 11). Moscow is alarmed by new data showing that the non-Russian nations of the North Caucasus lag far behind others in the Russian Federation […] The post Moscow Pushing North Caucasians to Adopt a Common Civic Russian Identity appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: On June 1, the China Coast Guard (CCG) announced that it had launched “law enforcement patrols” in waters east of Taiwan (WeChat/CCG, June 1). CCG vessels entered Taiwan’s restricted waters around Dongsha Island a few days later on June 5. On the following day, the Ministry of Transport of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) announced […] The post Quasi-Quarantine Operations Held East of Taiwan appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: In the past two years, analysts writing in the PLA Daily have begun to discuss what they call “battlefield execution” (战场执行). After the topic was introduced in February 2025, PLA Daily published a second Military Forum (军事论坛) article on the topic on June 4 of this year (PLA Daily, February 6, 2025, June 4). [1] Official […] The post Emphasis on Battlefield Execution Supports 2027 Goal appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: From May 12–13, Astana hosted the 21st International Capacity-Building Seminar on Trade and Transport Facilitation. The UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), the Transport Corridor Europe–Caucasus–Asia (TRACECA) Permanent Secretariat, and the Government of Kazakhstan jointly organized the seminar (UNECE, accessed May 25). The seminar focused on developing practical approaches to multimodal digital transport […] The post Regional States Consolidate the Resilience of the Middle Corridor (Part 2) appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: Armenia’s June 7 parliamentary elections resulted in another victory for the ruling Civil Contract Party (49.81 percent) led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. This result may signify the continuation and consolidation of a Western foreign policy trajectory that has been underway since the Velvet Revolution in May 2018 (Armen Press, June 8). The […] The post Armenian Election Results Hold Contradictory Implications for Iran appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: The Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, the governing body of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), held a meeting in Astana on May 26–28 (24.kz, May 28). [1] The topics of discussion included how to leverage artificial intelligence to accelerate trade movement and digitize the trade bloc’s economies. The latest changes unveiled by the trade […] The post Moscow Concerned About Armenia’s Wavering EAEU Membership appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: Shares of Gazprom fell sharply on the Moscow stock exchange on May 20 at the end of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s two-day state visit to the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This trip was his fifth since the beginning of the war and the 25th during his presidency. Putin again failed to make […] The post Putin’s PRC Visit Failed to Advance Power of Siberia 2 appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: The water shortage in the five Central Asian countries continues to worsen. It has now reached the point where the “water surplus” upstream countries of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan no longer have sufficient water to send more downstream to the three other “water short” countries of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan (Window on Eurasia, March […] The post Growing Water Shortages in Central Asia Threaten Region and its Neighbors appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: On June 12, RBC-Ukraine, citing a source in the Ukrainian government, reported that the United States had provided Kyiv with information indicating that Russia was preparing a potential Oreshnik strike (RBC-Ukraine, June 12). Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy focused on this threat in his address to Ukrainians that day, but only a few Russian […] The post Oreshnik Threat Not Distracting From Kremlin’s Setbacks appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: On June 8, just several hours after the closing of polling stations in Armenia’s pivotal parliamentary elections and even before Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan officially declared victory for his Civil Contract party, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze congratulated him on his party’s success. Writing on X, Kobakhidze expressed his readiness to deepen […] The post Armenian Election Results Inspire Pro-Western Forces in Georgia appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: At the end of March, Chinese state media announced the establishment of a new global governance institution, the World Data Organization (WDO; 世界数据组织), headquartered in Beijing. The top of the People’s Daily front page reported that Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping had penned a congratulatory letter that Politburo Standing Committee […] The post U.S.-Sanctioned United Front Figure Leads World Data Organization appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: The influence of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had been growing for decades. The killing of Former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the rise of his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, to the position have centralized the IRGC’s role in strategic decisionmaking. Although many top IRGC commanders were killed early in the conflict, they […] The post Iran’s Post-Conflict Political Structure appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: The launch of Operation Epic Fury on February 28 aimed to destroy much of Iran’s military capabilities. One day into the joint U.S.–Israeli attacks, U.S. President Donald Trump declared that Iran’s navy “will soon be floating at the bottom of the sea” (X/@WhiteHouse, March 1).  Iranian naval infrastructure has indeed suffered crippling losses.
Executive Summary: On April 6, Islamic State’s (IS) news agency Amaq released a statement from its Sahel affiliate, Islamic State in Sahel Province (ISSP). In the statement, the group claimed to have killed 35 al-Qaeda-aligned Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) militants in Niger’s western Tillaberi region. ISSP also claimed to have seized more than 30 […] The post JNIM Escalates Sahelian Offensives Amid Fratricidal War with ISSP appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: On April 23, U.S. authorities charged two Chinese nationals, Huang Xingshan and Jiang Wen Jie, with managing the Shunda Park scam compound in Myanmar. At this compound, trafficked workers were forced to conduct cryptocurrency fraud schemes (U.S.
This article is the first in a series based on data collected from 16 interviews conducted with civic, humanitarian, and political experts in Kyiv, Ukraine, from April 13–24, 2026. The goal of the project was to obtain an accurate, up-to-date snapshot of the numerous realities that comprise modern-day Ukraine. This piece examines the reasons behind […] The post Youth, Innovation, and New Reasons for Optimism Amid Russia’s War Against Ukraine appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: In January 2014, a Study Times article discussed the recently created Central National Security Commission, saying that the new body would coordinate resources across a single peacetime–wartime system comprising military operations, national defense mobilization, and public security management (Study Times, January 27, 2014). In the 12 years since, those ambitions have been implemented across every […] The post New Mobilization Law to Deepen Security Obligations appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: In the coming weeks, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) Ministry of Public Security (MPS) is expected to convene an annual work meeting for the “Clean Net/Protect the Net” (净网/护网) program, a framework for national-level “live fire” (实战) cybersecurity attack and defense exercises. At last year’s meeting, the MPS directed public security institutions […] The post Chinese Grid Operators Maintain Offensive Cyber Programs appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: Policymakers in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) want to improve “data supply” (数据供给) to “provide sufficient ‘fuel’ for the development and application of artificial intelligence” (为人工智能发展和应用提供充足“燃料”). This is according to a new plan from the National Data Administration (NDA, 国家数据局) titled “Implementation Plan for Promoting the Construction of High-Quality Industry Datasets” (关于推进行业高质量数据集建设行动的实施方案). […] The post The PRC’s Token Economy Takes Shape appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: As Russia’s war against Ukraine enters a new phase characterized by the expansion of the “kill zone” up to 25 kilometers (15.5 miles) from the line of contact, Russia is attempting to scale elite unmanned systems units through a centralized command structure (YouTube/@Ukrainska Pravda, May 14). On April 20, several Russian military-linked media […] The post Rubicon Reveals Limits of Russia’s Drone Centralization appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: Uzbekistan is developing infrastructure to connect Central Asia to South Asia, partly through connecting to Afghanistan’s railway network. On May 21, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs for the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan, announced the reopening of the final, fifth port of the 75-kilometer (46.6-mile) Hairatan–Mazar-i-Sharif railway, which […] The post Afghan–Pakistani Conflict Not Stopping ‘Kabul Corridor’ Construction appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: Moscow is again promoting the construction of a tunnel under the Bering Strait that would connect the Russian Far East with the U.S. state of Alaska. This has generated some interest in Washington, and some Russian officials are proposing to call it the Putin–Trump Tunnel  (The Moscow Times, October 17, 2025; Ekho Rossiya, […] The post Neither Siberia nor Alaska has Railways Needed for Bering Strait Tunnel appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) ascribes enormous strategic potential to quantum technologies. An article by the editorial board in the latest issue of its flagship theory journal, Qiushi, describes quantum as having “immeasurable strategic significance for … promoting the leapfrog development of industries” (对于 … 推动产业跨越式发展具有不可估量的战略意义). Underscoring the Party’s competitive—and even existential—framing for […] The post PRC Pulls Ahead in Quantum Communications Security appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: Burgeoning security cooperation between Japan and the Philippines, codified in their new Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, poses a new challenge to the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) irredentist maritime claims. Following years of coercive behavior from Beijing in the East and South China seas, Tokyo and Manila are cooperating to resist further Chinese encroachment […] The post Japan and the Philippines Join Forces to Resist PRC Coercion appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg on April 27 to discuss the ongoing conflict in and around Iran (The Moscow Times; Interfax, April 27). Araghchi’s visit to Moscow highlighted the two states’ Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty—which Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed in January 2025—and […] The post Russia Balances Relationship with Iran and Other Gulf States appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Georgia have upgraded their ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership (PRC State Council, June 9). The PRC Embassy in Georgia announced the elevation of relations on June 9, timed to coincide with the 34th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the PRC and Georgia […] The post Georgian Dream Seeking U.S. Reset While Resisting Requisite Reforms appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: Whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will launch an attack on the Baltic countries, as many now fear is possible, remains uncertain (see Strategic Snapshot, June 8, 2025; see EDM, September 4, 2025, May 8; Novaya Gazeta Evropa, June 5). Moscow is pushing a propaganda line that has consequences not only for the Baltics […] The post Moscow Tells Baltics NATO Will Not Come to Their Rescue appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: On May 27, Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced the start of a “logistical lockdown” for the Russian army characterized by an increase in Ukrainian “middle strike” drone attacks on the Russian rear.  According to Fedorov, Ukraine has quadrupled its destruction of Russian logistics, warehouses, equipment, command posts, and supply routes over the […] The post Ukrainian Mid-Range Drones Target Russian Logistics appeared first on Jamestown .
A report from the Jamestown Foundation analyzes growing signs of military crisis in Russia and the possibility of regime change resulting from potential defeat in its war against Ukraine. Russian leadership's public messaging about inevitable victory is increasingly disconnected from battlefield realities, according to polling and intelligence assessments.
A policy analysis examines long-standing vulnerabilities in U.S. supply chains arising from outsourced contract manufacturing to China, arguing that reliance on PRC production facilities for critical technologies poses latent national security risks through potential technology transfer and strategic dependency.
Executive Summary: On April 24, Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Transport and Communications announced the successful implementation of a pilot transport project on the Kyrgyzstan–China–Pakistan route. A single truck carrying goods from Kyrgyzstan reached the port in Pakistan’s city of Karachi along the Karakorum Highway via the People’s Republic of China (PRC), bypassing Afghanistan. The Kyrgyz Ministry […] The post Central Asia Accessing Pakistani Sea Ports that Bypass Afghanistan appeared first on Jamestown .
Executive Summary: An inevitable byproduct of Russia’s war against Ukraine entering its fifth year is North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) rearmament efforts. Poland, which shares a 144-mile border with Russia, is at the forefront of these efforts. On May 6, Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz told participants at the […] The post Polish Army Set to be Largest in Europe appeared first on Jamestown .