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US recession defined by two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or NBER announcement between Q2 2025–Q4 2026 directly measures the recession trigger underlying mild-recession-recovery scenario.
AI industry downturn via three-event threshold including NVIDIA revenue decline, data center capex slowdown, and GPU price collapse—core triggers of capex-cycle overshoot and crash.
Fed rate cut activity in 2026, core trigger for orderly-cut-cycle scenario under fed-policy-reversal conditions.
Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 defines recession; directly maps to the deep-recession branch trigger via BEA or NBER confirmation.
Explicitly asks whether US undergoes stagflation before 2026 midterms; combines inflation and unemployment components that define stagflation trap triggered by Fed policy reversal.
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Commercial real estate signals remain elevated risk. US office vacancy rates hit 20% nationally with regional bank CRE loan concentration a systemic concern. Data centre REITs are the exception — AI demand is driving 30%+ rent growth. Residential REITs face affordability headwinds but supply constraints support pricing. Rate cut signals provide some relief.