Oil traders have gone from pricing in the worst supply disruption in modern history to pricing in a recovery that hasn't happened yet. Inventory data suggests they’re getting ahead of themselves. Brent crude fell below $77 per barrel on Thursday, the lowest level since the early days of the Middle East war, after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and launching 60 days of negotiations toward a broader agreement.