<p>During <a class="Link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7287471/2026/05/17/nationals-white-nationalist-sign-ban/" target="_blank" >a Washington Nationals baseball game</a> on May 17, three people <a class="Link" href="https://www.mlb.com/news/nationals-investigating-individuals-banner" target="_blank" >unfurled a large banner</a> from the upper deck of Nationals Park displaying a link to a white nationalist website.</p><p>The website, warning of the replacement of whites by people of color, called for <a class="Link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7287471/2026/05/17/nationals-white-nationalist-sign-ban/" target="_blank" >the deportation of 100 million people</a> from the United States.</p><p>The disturbing incident reflects the broader <a class="Link" href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-great-replacement-theory-a-scholar-of-race-relations-explains-224835" target="_blank" >ascendance of the “great replacement theory</a>,” the xenophobic conspiracy theory asserting that shadowy elites are embracing permissive immigration policies to replace native-born white Americans with immigrants of color.</p><p><a class="Link" href="https://www.mediamatters.org/new-york-times/trump-pushed-replacement-theory-during-debate-mainstream-media-fact-checks-sanitized" target="_blank" >Prominent Republicans</a>, including <a class="Link" href="https://www.npr.org/2024/09/13/g-s1-22583/trump-great-replacement-conspiracy-theory" target="_blank" >President Donald Trump</a>, <a class="Link" href="https://sg.news.yahoo.com/trump-mike-johnson-promote-great-222624801.html" target="_blank" >Speaker of the House Mike Johnson</a> and <a class="Link" href="https://www.npr.org/2023/04/25/1171800317/how-tucker-carlsons-extremist-narratives-shaped-fox-news-and-conservative-politi" target="_blank" >conservative podcaster Tucker Carlson</a>, have echoed ideas associated with the great replacement theory. And <a class="Link" href="https://www.npr.org/2023/04/25/1171800317/how-tucker-carlsons-extremist-narratives-shaped-fox-news-and-conservative-politi" target="_blank" >conservative media outlets</a>, such as <a class="Link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/15/us/replacement-theory-shooting-tucker-carlson.html" target="_blank" >Fox News</a>, have disseminated them to millions of viewers.</p><div class="RichTextSidebarModule Enhancement" data-module data-align-center><a class="AnchorLink" id="module-c70000" name="module-c70000"></a> <div class="RichTextSidebarModule-title">Commentary bug</div> <div class="RichTextModule-items RichTextBody"><h2>Commentary</h2></div> </div><p>But are the xenophobic ideas recently expressed at Nationals Park limited to a small number of extremists, or are they also endorsed by the broader public? If the latter, how do political and media elites contribute to their spread?</p><p>To answer these questions, our team has conducted several <a class="Link" href="https://www.umass.edu/political-science/umass-amherst-poll" target="_blank" >nationally representative surveys</a> that ask Americans about their support for key tenets of the great replacement theory.</p><h3>New immigrants as a threat</h3><h3></h3><p>We consistently found that <a class="Link" href="https://www.umass.edu/political-science/about/reports/2026-4" target="_blank" >a substantial minority of Americans</a> agree with the sentiment that new immigrants threaten the political, cultural and economic power of white Americans.