SIGNALS from the US and Iran that a framework agreement could be signed as early as this weekend are being viewed in Washington policy circles not as a final breakthrough but as the start of a tightly managed and uncertain negotiation process. Analysts at leading American think tanks, including the Atlantic Council and the Brookings Institution, caution that even if a preliminary understanding emerges, it is likely to resemble an outline agreement rather than a comprehensive settlement and would sit within a broader strategic realignment already reshaping the Middle East and the global order. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested that a “major understanding” with Iran is close, while Iranian officials have also signalled progress towards an interim arrangement.