🇮🇩 Indonesia — Investment Hypothesis

How the 68/100 opportunity score was derived from OSINT signals.

Investment Thesis

Post-election political risk in Indonesia has been absorbed faster than anticipated. Nickel export signals remain stable. Assets are still priced for election uncertainty that has now resolved.

Score Breakdown

Signal trend (direction + momentum)

18 / 30

Market pricing gap

12 / 25

Source quality + recency

20 / 25

Macro / sector tailwind

18 / 20

Total Score68 / 100

Key Risk Factors

⚠Nickel export restriction policy review ongoing→ signals ⚠USD/IDR sensitivity to Fed policy→ signals

Supporting Signals — Last 30 Days (15 highest-significance)

Military — 3 signals

4/27/20268.5

Reports of tensions in Jakarta [8 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

4/25/20268.5

Reports of tensions in Jakarta [10 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

4/27/20268.5

Reports of tensions in Jakarta [6 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

Political — 11 signals

4/26/20268.5

Reports of tensions in Jakarta [5 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

4/19/20268.5

Papua reported tensions in Jakarta [20 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

4/25/20268.5

Indonesian reported tensions with Captain in Antara [6 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

4/23/20268.5

Catholic reported tensions with Jakarta in North Sumatra [4 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

4/23/20268.5

British reported tensions with Malaysia in Bali [6 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

4/25/20268.5

Foreign Minist reported tensions with Indonesian in Indonesia [3 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

4/25/20268.5

Indonesian reported tensions in Indonesia [3 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

4/25/20268.5

Jakarta reported tensions with Brac in Riau [8 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

4/24/20268.5

Foreign National reported tensions with The US in Antara [10 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

4/28/20268.5

Reports of tensions in Antara [4 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

4/28/20268.5

Reports of tensions in Jakarta [6 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

Criminal — 1 signals

4/24/20268.5

Captain reported tensions with Indonesia in Antara [4 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

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