EC signals are stable with no significant trend. 47 events monitored over the past 7 days. No actionable thesis at this time.
Ground ConditionsRaw geopolitical signal intensity — measures what is happening on the ground, independent of market pricing.
Threat levelRaw geopolitical signal intensity — independent of market pricing. High threat does not preclude opportunity if markets have already overpriced it.
Elevated
178/wk · base 47
Signal trend
279%
30-day baseline
Market ImplicationHow strong is the investment case based on signal/price divergence — what signals say vs. what markets have priced in.
Thesis scoreComposite score of signal trend (30pts), market gap (25pts), source quality (25pts), macro tailwind (20pts). Higher = stronger investment thesis, not lower risk.
37 /100
neutral
How strong is the investment case
Market gap
−0%
vs. model value
Signal activity is broadly in line with current market pricing — no material divergence detected.