Cross-domain signals63thin · 2 src2 sources

Country risk1OSINT1

NEUTRAL

37Signal Score · /100

44

Signals 7d

0%

Market Gap

↑107%

Signal Trend

↓ Export Brief ⇄ Compare

BO signals are stable with no significant trend. 44 events monitored over the past 7 days. No actionable thesis at this time.

Ground Conditions

Threat level

Critical

91/wk · base 44

Signal trend

107%

30-day baseline

Market Implication

Thesis score

37 /100

neutral

How strong is the investment case

Market gap

−0%

vs. model value

Signal activity is broadly in line with current market pricing — no material divergence detected.

Investment thesis strength

NEUTRAL

Threat signal intensity

72h window

Thesis components

0/30

15/25

8/25

10/20

Total: 33/100Methodology →

Sentiment↓

37/100 · Top 70% of 297 countries · ⓘ

Score Trend (30d)

Industries

Opportunities

Industry posture computes once companies have scores

Risks

Industry posture computes once companies have scores

Companies

Opportunities

No tracked companies for this country yet

Risks

No tracked companies for this country yet

Investment Thesis

BO signals are stable with no significant trend. 44 events monitored over the past 7 days. No actionable thesis at this time.

What drove this? →

Supporting signals

9/104/23/2026

International Energy Agency carried out physical assault on Chernobyl in Belarus [3 sources]

→ Details

9/104/24/2026

International Energy Agency carried out physical assault on Japan in Belarus [3 sources]

→ Details

⚠ Acute FX and reserve crisis; default risk on external debt ⚠ Political fragmentation blocks IMF program ⚠ Gas reserves declining; export revenue structurally lower

Structural Risk Indicators

Complete

Debt / GDP

102.7%

% of GDP

Cautionary

FX Reserves

1.9 mo

months import cover

Cautionary

Fiscal Balance

-9.0%

% of GDP

Alarming

Current Account

+1.2%

% of GDP

Stable

Debt Service

3.4%

% of exports

Manageable

IMF WEO + World Bank data · Annual/quarterly release cadence · Not real-time crisis indicators · Updated Jun 2026

US-listed funds with exposure

📡 News clusters · 72hAll 44 →

⚔️Military9

International Energy Agency carried out physical assault on Chernobyl in Belarus [3 sources]

sig 8.29 signals

🗳Political5

Belarusian reported tensions in Minsk [5 sources]

sig 7.25 signals

🔍Criminal5

Reports of coercive pressure in Trostenets [10 sources]

sig 7.15 signals

📊Economic1

Belarus reduced diplomatic relations in Belarus [3 sources]

sig 7.81 signal

🎯 Key scenariosAll →

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📈 Key stocksAll →

No company data available.

Market Pricing Analysis

Market gap0%

Signal trend (7d)↑ 107% vs 7d avg

Recommended actionNEUTRAL

Score Breakdown — 37 / 100

Signal trend (direction + momentum)0 / 30

Market pricing gap15 / 25

Source quality + recency8 / 25

Macro / sector tailwind10 / 20

Total37 / 100

Key Opportunity Signals

✦International Energy Agency carried out physical assault on Chernobyl in Belarus [3 sources]✦International Energy Agency carried out physical assault on Japan in Belarus [3 sources]✦International Energy Agency carried out physical assault on Japan in Belarus [3 sources]

Key Risk Factors

⚠Acute FX and reserve crisis; default risk on external debt ⚠Political fragmentation blocks IMF program ⚠Gas reserves declining; export revenue structurally lower

Related Investment Themes

🪙

LatAm Political Risk Reset

⚠ Risk for this country

RISK

Recent Signals

6/27/2026

🇧🇴 Bolivia

Industries

Companies

Related Investment Themes