Merck's Keytruda patent cliff in 2028 looms larger as oncology pipeline replacements underwhelm in trials. The subcutaneous Keytruda formulation provides only partial defense. Animal Health and Gardasil HPV vaccine face China demand softness. Recent M&A has not produced the diversification needed to absorb the eventual Keytruda step-down.
Thesis reviewed May 29, 2026
Merck & Co. Inc. is headquartered in United States, which is currently showing elevated risk signals.
πΊπΈUnited States78REDUCEView United States risk detail βπPharma0NEUTRAL| Ticker | Company | Score | Gap | Signal Ξ | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLY | Eli Lilly and Company | 50 | +24% | β0% | EARLY |
| AZN | AstraZeneca PLC | 50 | +11% | β0% | EARLY |
| SNY | Sanofi | 50 | +14% | β0% | EARLY |
| GSK | GSK plc | 50 | +8% | β0% | NEUTRAL |
| PFE | Pfizer Inc. | 50 | +6% | β0% | NEUTRAL |
| NVO | Novo Nordisk A/S | 50 | +15% | β0% | EARLY |
| RDY | Dr Reddy's Laboratories Ltd | 50 | +7% | β0% | NEUTRAL |
Investors who hold MRK may also have indirect exposure through these country funds.
Gardasil China sales drop 50% as inventory destock continues
Keytruda subQ shows non-inferiority but no commercial premium
MK-1084 KRAS combination misses primary endpoint
Estimates Β· Yahoo Finance Β· Not audited figures
| Politician | Party | Type | Amount | Trade Date | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh GottheimerNJ | D | Buy | $1kβ$15k | Feb 4, 26 | +2.9% |
| Julie JohnsonTX | D | Buy | $1kβ$15k | Dec 18, 25 | +7.8% |
| Gilbert CisnerosCA | D | Buy | $1kβ$15k | Dec 19, 25 | +9.5% |
| Jared MoskowitzFL | D | Buy | $1kβ$15k | Nov 8, 24 | +20.5% |
| Jonathan JacksonIL | D | Buy | Unknown amount | Sep 24, 24 | +14.0% |
| John JamesMI | R | Buy | $1kβ$15k | Sep 4, 24 | +6.9% |
| John JamesMI | R | Buy | $1kβ$15k | Nov 10, 23 | +6.3% |
| Jared MoskowitzFL | D | Buy | $1kβ$15k | Sep 1, 23 | +8.5% |
| Jared MoskowitzFL | D | Buy | $1kβ$15k | Jul 14, 23 | +8.5% |
| C. Scott FranklinFL | R | Buy | $1kβ$15k | Aug 2, 24 | +9.4% |
| Kathy ManningNC | Buy | $1kβ$15k | Jul 2, 24 | +10.8% | |
| Josh GottheimerNJ | D | Sell | $1kβ$15k | Jun 21, 24 | -0.1% |