🇱🇾 Libya — Investment Hypothesis

How the 64/100 neutral score was derived from OSINT signals.

Investment Thesis

LY signals are stable with no significant trend. 19 events monitored over the past 7 days. No actionable thesis at this time.

Score Breakdown

Signal trend (direction + momentum)

30 / 30

Market pricing gap

15 / 25

Source quality + recency

8 / 25

Macro / sector tailwind

10 / 20

Total Score64 / 100

Key Risk Factors

⚠Renewed civil conflict on Haftar succession→ signals ⚠Oil production whipsaw on recurring blockades→ signals

Supporting Signals — Last 30 Days (15 highest-significance)

Political — 4 signals

5/2/20268.5

Reports of tensions in Tripoli [5 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

4/25/20268.5

Ahmed Abdullah reported tensions with Abdullah in Bani Walid [8 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

4/21/20268.5

Reports of tensions in Tripoli [3 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

4/28/20268.5

Reports of tensions in Tripoli [10 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

Military — 11 signals

4/23/20268.5

Islam carried out physical assault on Muammar Gaddafi in Tripoli [4 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

4/20/20268.2

Reports of physical assault in Tripoli [8 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

4/20/20268.2

Reports of physical assault in Tripoli [10 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

4/19/20268.2

Trafficker carried out physical assault on Migrant in Libya [5 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

4/20/20268.2

Detainee carried out physical assault in Libya [5 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

4/23/20268.2

Jordan carried out physical assault in Libya [4 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

4/20/20268.2

Reports of physical assault in Tripoli [5 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

4/20/20268.2

Reports of physical assault in Tripoli [6 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

4/20/20268.2

Iranian carried out physical assault on Tripoli in Tripoli [10 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

4/24/20267.5

Libya deployed military forces in Tripoli [5 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

4/24/20267.5

Libya deployed military forces in Libya [10 sources]

📡 GDELT Events Historical

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