Neste's renewable diesel franchise has been hit by the collapse in LCFS (California Low Carbon Fuel Standard) credit prices and the surge in US biomass-based diesel capacity that has depressed margins from $1,000+ to $400/ton. The Singapore renewable products refinery expansion has come online into a structurally weaker market. SAF (sustainable aviation fuel) demand remains nascent and policy-dependent. CEO transition and strategy reset are mid-cycle. Equity has derated by >70% from peak; further downside is possible but valuation is now distressed.
Signals scoped to FI · Company-specific tagging coming soon.